ES Journal - 2014

short here with confidence

based on RSI 14 this is the most SP500 has been overbought since May of last year when it quickly pulled back 6% 1700/ to 1550. in addition its also hitting the top of channel that extends and is respected from April of2012..

No catalyst necessary.. the first headline will be (stocks pull back based on profit taking) then the talking heads will start talking about over extension.. then the bears will wake up, and when earnings season starts in July earnings will dissapoint and the real selling will begin..
 
Scaleout.Scalper said:
Agree with your comments, except that there have been plenty of pullbacks in smaller timeframes.

When it's so strong, we just simply need to adapt and look lower for the waves there.
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But it is not "strong" from an orderflow sense though. There is no assertive buying that is going on -- which, in my opinion, indicates lack of strength. It is almost like someone is supporting the market.

For example, off the bat at RTH open in ES, buyers failed to bite at critical levels: 43.75 and 45.25. Historically, given yesterday's action in the orderflow, followed by buyers not biting above PDH, markets have sold off. Now, at 10:34 at the 46.00 level, buying gave up, and following that, the sellers took control at 47.25. The only support that was available, should a break occur, was around the 43 handle.But out of the blue buying re-appeared at 46.00 [in the six years I have been looking at markets, this has never occurred. Yes, never! We would at least get a mild sell-off, with support coming in before the expected target, in this case before the 43 handle, but never at a level where buyers have given up and sellers took control.]

No wonder no one wants to be in the market: look at the price action after 11:30!

Are there any experienced traders here that trade based on orderflow [and DOM] who have seen such action before? If you can point me to a point in time when such things happened, I can do my homework. Thank you.

Really interesting! The market always is teaching something new, and that is what makes this very engaging!

All the best!
 
here's the last 2 days of uvol in yellow and dvol in blue, on the right are the levels of uvol dvol at 10-1030cst area where spu's topped, all that buying since and market not going up, the djt and xlf were still rising last i checked so maybe it's in there ,but it should be represented in the spx...you could assume they are buying 1 and selling 2, holding up the market to distribute ...but just a guess
 
Handle123 said:
Long term, I am still short ES from ave price of 1910, and I have hedged with call options. Might get stopped out next week and calls hopefully bail out the trade.
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Well, took sizeable loss in ES Futures short yesterday and got out average price of 1925.00, today sold all call options for very very nice gain to cover futures losses and add tidy little profit. And I did it all again, Long term short ES ave price of 1947.50 and bought Call options for a hedge.

Lots of hits at 1248.00/48.25, if it won't go up........
 
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