SPX daily...another megaphone, 3rd touch. if it holds sub 1800's in the near future
ES Journal - 2014
- Thread starter murica
- Start date
Long overdue for a correction.
human logic suggests one can place stops "outside" of random noise = key support & resistance which differs for every trade
extensive mathematical back-testing always proves that variable stops offer no higher win % than basic fixed-dollar stops, providing each measure is roughly equal to one another. Obviously a 2-tick fixed stop tested against an 8 to 11-tick variable stop is purposely skewed results. But if you run analysis on an 8-tick fixed stop versus anything you can dream of that's variable, 8-tick fixed will be equal to superior over time.
logic & reason usually fail to pan out when it pertains to trading. One proven case time and again is the idea of fixed stops versus variable stops to limit risk over time. This is more true today than ever before, with HFTs designed to whip lower-low and higher-high swings before immediate reversal of price direction once those "protected" stops get chopped out.
Yes, that is my point but you said it better.
If this is true it's certainly counter-intuitive. Can't say I believe that a carefully place stop "outside of noise" fairs worse or even money vs an arbitrary fixed stop that doesn't take into account past price history (ie, S/R, candle structure etc). If such a thing as S/R exists and is valid, then how can what you claim be true
Scaleout.Scalper
Guest
When the target is so ample, we can just wait for price to confirm a nice turn and then take it.
In my experience, these can bend, even break and conver resistance to support, I know, a great accomplishment, but this bull has done it time and time again; so imo a little confirmation is in order.
Scaleout.Scalper
Guest
Yes, that is my point but you said it better.
If this is true it's certainly counter-intuitive. Can't say I believe that a carefully place stop "outside of noise" fairs worse or even money vs an arbitrary fixed stop that doesn't take into account past price history (ie, S/R, candle structure etc). If such a thing as S/R exists and is valid, then how can what you claim be true
I actually think the market is an expert stop hunter and actually aims for those so called, stops outside the range of noise.
I agree those stops are hunted, that is the "noise". Those "outside the range" of noise are not triggered.
What are you talking? Every week is an interesting week. Some are interestingly boring like last week, lol.