I have reached the conclusion that the question of trading models is really not relevant to those who make it big in trading. It is only the small and very leveraged trader who makes a big deal out of it . I think the big money may trade with no leverage, and use time to clean the other side. For the small leveraged, the enemy is probably more the leverage than a timing model.
The point of discussing timing is just to prove to myself that what really matters, and is lacking in this business, is the capital and not the talent as I have read many on this forum repeat until one gets nausea.
If timing was indeed what is needed, one would expect to see a line of money backers in this thread (I am assuming that the people who read this thread are well off).
The good thing with ET is when I read your post, I thought the complete opposite.
Talent in trading is important for those who live exclusively from their trading.
May be not for hedge funds where the key is gaining investors ( management fees), and definitively not for investment banks where a good chunk of profits is made from services ( merger and acquisions, advising governments on loans ( a gvt can borrow hundreds of billions and a %tge of this is significant profit). And government can lend billions in corporate welfare operations - there banks services are neede and the fees they earn can be substantial.
And as evidence that talent is not a "given" : traders in institutions
still feel the need for insider trading, otherwise they can't really make it.
There is actually not as much talent in trading as one would think : first how does one know if it is not a lucky winning streak before blow ups come in?
If the talent was there, how comes veteran blow up?
If the talent side was easy, how comes even well capitalized firms like Maddoff's one could not find them that easily and went the ponzi way?
Now, with compounding : anybody who
truely has the trading gift can make it big.
The leveraged and small trader makes a big deal of it, because he eats what he extracts from the market. No salary, no benefits, etc...
Have you ever traded your own account ? and lived solely from your trading?
How long did you last IF you had?