ES Journal - 2014

ammo said:
not sure of the year maybe 89, but after the dow 87 crash, had made a 3 step pattern , and dropped thru the bottom of 1st step, nikkie had the same pattern , top of pattern 25k, with a near zero extended timeframe int rate, it went on to make a 4th step to 35 or 36k and then dropped to 10k, i think the bottom of 3rd step was 15-19 k area, going on memory can't find a chart for it... so if we do go on to make a 4th step with extended timeframe 0 int rates, it's nothing new
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just21
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,423

Quote:
Originally Posted by jsp326 View Post
The Nikkei in the 80s is another one, though you can't find its historical chart at stockcharts.com. At its peak it was around 40,000 in 1990. Today it's hovering around 15,000. That should give the buy-n-holders something to think about. Not all markets recover within 20 years.
Nikkei in the 1980's was 592%

http://www.finfacts.com/Private/curency/nikkei225performance.htm
 
mastacoli71 said:
Turkey raised lending rates by a gazillion. Not sure how that is net positive for the mkts. Probably stop run in low liq mkt.
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I try to keep things simple for my pea size brain. I never understood how raising rates is a good thing for the mkt.
 
If inflation was not a concern feds would stand pat on bond purchases. I know the $ does not go as far as it did 10+ years ago for me personally. Education and housing is just stupid expensive. Not sure where the cpi data comes from but it is far from accurate just like the employment % number. Things are skewed to justify policy. Remember the game of musical chairs; world central bankers are in the late rounds. We are in year 5 of the bull market. Last time mkt ran 7 straight years was in the 80's I believe so ar best we have another 2 left. Won't be any diff this time around in my opinion. At this point when buying I just pinch my nose :)



Spectre2007 said:
The contagion I've worried about overseas seems to be starting. Small signs here and there. Restructuring secondary to FeD orchestrating that publicly they will curtail liquidity. Dollar will rally most currency pairs. You should see some flight to safety into US credit instruments at the early part of liquidity constraints cycle. Eventually the FED will raise rates but current debt/budget won't let them since financing the US debt even at year 2000 rates would spell a mathematical doom scenario. Short term downdrafts in US equities will be used to corral rates down on 10-30 year instruments.

Behind the scenes the FED in collusion with US banks will continue to cycle equities higher to buffer the malaise evident systemically globally. Overall the trend is up in equities. Credit instruments will move in a sideways band. Home prices and US asset prices need to be much much higher to break us out of deflationary malaise.

Chris
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