ES Journal - 2014

mastacoli71 said:
Turkey raised lending rates by a gazillion. Not sure how that is net positive for the mkts. Probably stop run in low liq mkt.
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The contagion I've worried about overseas seems to be starting. Small signs here and there. Restructuring secondary to FeD orchestrating that publicly they will curtail liquidity. Dollar will rally most currency pairs. You should see some flight to safety into US credit instruments at the early part of liquidity constraints cycle. Eventually the FED will raise rates but current debt/budget won't let them since financing the US debt even at year 2000 rates would spell a mathematical doom scenario. Short term downdrafts in US equities will be used to corral rates down on 10-30 year instruments.

Behind the scenes the FED in collusion with US banks will continue to cycle equities higher to buffer the malaise evident systemically globally. Overall the trend is up in equities. Credit instruments will move in a sideways band. Home prices and US asset prices need to be much much higher to break us out of deflationary malaise.

Chris
 
Spectre2007 said:
The contagion I've worried about overseas seems to be starting. Small signs here and there. Restructuring secondary to FeD orchestrating that publicly they will curtail liquidity. Dollar will rally most currency pairs. You should see some flight to safety into US credit instruments at the early part of liquidity constraints cycle. Eventually the FED will raise rates but current debt/budget won't let them since financing the US debt even at year 2000 rates would spell a mathematical doom scenario. Short term downdrafts in US equities will be used to corral rates down on 10-30 year instruments.

Behind the scenes the FED in collusion with US banks will continue to cycle equities higher to buffer the malaise evident systemically globally. Overall the trend is up in equities. Credit instruments will move in a sideways band. Home prices and US asset prices need to be much much higher to break us out of deflationary malaise.

Chris
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Spec, the commercial and residential real estate burden on the banks,non addressed,lends one to believe they would rather keep it,somehow small in comparison to the influx of nearly free credit extended to banks,any idea why they wouldn't have cleaned up the books on this?
 
ammo said:
Spec, the commercial and residential real estate burden on the banks,non addressed,lends one to believe they would rather keep it,somehow small in comparison to the influx of nearly free credit extended to banks,any idea why they wouldn't have cleaned up the books on this?
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The burden on books is only temporary. The commercial and residential will clean itself up when asset prices are at huge multiples of what they are now. Meaning the banks are looking for new bubbles to bail them out. And that's why the FED is doing what it is, the SPOOZ will be 2500 or so soon. The paper wealth will get transferred into the real economy.

But short term the FEDs transmittal will cause quakes overseas. So look for the previous yearly high at 1550 or higher to be approached. Might not even get there, just a short blip under 1600 maybe. It all based on what bands on the long term credit instruments they are looking for. So equities will be sold globally to fuel a 10-30 year instrument cycle down in interest rates. Mortgage rates need to stay low to pump home prices higher.
 
Daring said:
Long ES 1768.00 swing trade Stop 1747
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Half position out at 1788 for +20.00, raising stop to 1758.00

Worst case scenario +10.00 on half size while adjusting stop for FOMC volatility.

Next target based on upcoming price action.
 
Here's TBT as a proxy for 20 year interest rates. See how it failed to breech upper resistance. The bond market does this on this mega downward trend in interest rates. USA would like to be like Japan in some ways. Interest rates on long term instruments at under 2%, the financing costs for US debt would be much better.

The trick is how do you inflect rates down on the long end and yet create massive bubbles, that interest rates aren't reflexive to and have positive correlation. Use short term fear to spike long term rates down, create a panic in equities. When things calm down equities are ramped up beyond old highs yet long term rates still stay low. Ramp up equities quicker than long term rates go up.

It would mean that TBT at the very least would need to test its weekly lows.
 

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not sure of the year maybe 89, but after the dow 87 crash, had made a 3 step pattern , and dropped thru the bottom of 1st step, nikkie had the same pattern , top of pattern 25k, with a near zero extended timeframe int rate, it went on to make a 4th step to 35 or 36k and then dropped to 10k, i think the bottom of 3rd step was 15-19 k area, going on memory can't find a chart for it... so if we do go on to make a 4th step with extended timeframe 0 int rates, it's nothing new
 
ammo said:
not sure of the year maybe 89, but after the dow 87 crash, had made a 3 step pattern , and dropped thru the bottom of 1st step, nikkie had the same pattern , top of pattern 25k, with a near zero extended timeframe int rate, it went on to make a 4th step to 35 or 36k and then dropped to 10k, i think the bottom of 3rd step was 15-19 k area, going on memory can't find a chart for it... so if we do go on to make a 4th step with extended timeframe 0 int rates, it's nothing new
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just21
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,423

Quote:
Originally Posted by jsp326 View Post
The Nikkei in the 80s is another one, though you can't find its historical chart at stockcharts.com. At its peak it was around 40,000 in 1990. Today it's hovering around 15,000. That should give the buy-n-holders something to think about. Not all markets recover within 20 years.
Nikkei in the 1980's was 592% http://www.finfacts.com/Private/cure...erformance.htm not a chart but the nikkie courtesy of just 21, 38k to 10k
 
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