ES Journal - 2014

[ammo]

Short only? No Longs?

short only, avg into large positions and hold overnight,sometimes a few weeks,market up here has litlte chance of an up 40+ move, the opposite could easily happen,so longs are at higher risk for worst case scenario

 

[redbox]

I'm hand charting this at the moment, looks like buyers and sellers are in equilibrium. It has formed an almost perfect round and pert boob on my chart. A very small sag to the down side if anything.

 

[redbox]

short only, avg into large positions and hold overnight,sometimes a few weeks,market up here has litlte chance of an up 40+ move, the opposite could easily happen,so longs are at higher risk for worst case scenario

Thanks Ammo.

That must take a lot of skill and nerves considering the market had mostly risen over the past 5 years.

Do you find it easier in a bear or bull market?

 

[ammo]

Thanks Ammo.

That must take a lot of skill and nerves considering the market had mostly risen over the past 5 years.

Do you find it easier in a bear or bull market?

i'm add, contrarian by nature so it fits personality, these nip cleave wedges work so well, that its not hard on the nerves, market makes a new boob retraces back to cleave ,rinse repeat, try to catch those moves, avg in reduce size on pullbacks,sometimes a profit,sometimes a loss, add again, reduce on pullback,use longterm trendlines for major res,catch the turn and ride back to nip reduce ,add if it bounces ride back down thru nip to cleave... it's just a larger slower move than what you are going to find hand charting, same thing just bigger scale, glad to here your handcharting, few want to do that and few end up having the confidence in it, all the lessons are there..you are looking at a few points on each chart instead of watching every tick

 

[redbox]

i'm add, contrarian by nature so it fits personality, these nip cleave wedges work so well, that its not hard on the nerves, market makes a new boob retraces back to cleave ,rinse repeat, try to catch those moves, avg in reduce size on pullbacks,sometimes a profit,sometimes a loss, add again, reduce on pullback,use longterm trendlines for major res,catch the turn and ride back to nip reduce ,add if it bounces ride back down thru nip to cleave... it's just a larger slower move than what you are going to find hand charting, same thing just bigger scale, glad to here your handcharting, few want to do that and few end up having the confidence in it, all the lessons are there

Could you explain how you reduce size at the pullbacks? Is that at a loss? Sounds like you are always in once you enter?

Thanks for your time, I wont hassle you again for a while.

 

[ammo]

Could you explain how you reduce size at the pullbacks? Is that at a loss? Sounds like you are always in once you enter?

Thanks for your time, I wont hassle you again for a while.

say you're limit is 6 contracts. you are short 3@ 20, market rallys to 25 nip, you add 1, new avg 21.25, market pulls back to 20 cleave , you reduce 2,new avg of 21.25, you stayed short and now have room to add, just try to keep your avg not too far below actual price, eventually it reverts and you clean up, the adds and reductions are all made with relation to strength,weakness,looks really weak you dont reduce ,wait for next point and check for strength/weakness,looks really strong you cover all and wait for next obvious target and see if you want to reshort there,just depends

 

[johnny_utah]

Established SPXL long this morning at avg price 74.22. Looking for this uptrend to continue.

Taking half off here at 75.27.

 

[redbox]

say you're limit is 6 contracts. you are short 3@ 20, market rallys to 25 nip, you add 1, new avg 21.25, market pulls back to 20 cleave , you reduce 2,new avg of 21.25, you stayed short and now have room to add, just try to keep your avg not too far below actual price, eventually it reverts and you clean up, the adds and reductions are all made with relation to strength,weakness,looks really weak you dont reduce ,wait for next point and check for strength/weakness,looks really strong you cover all and wait for next obvious target and see if you want to reshort there,just depends

Lovely, thanks for that. How long have you been profitable with this method?

 

[ammo]

Lovely, thanks for that. How long have you been profitable with this method?

4-5 yrs..worked great with the we could drop big fear scenario over that time,kept a lid on big rallys, gave you time to adjust or cover

 

[ammo]

http://i.imgur.com/eHEZkJE.png 58 nip is res for this retrace see if it holds,google facta,plus declining qe may be enough for a better drop
http://i.imgur.com/8QMpQwj.png market builds these boobs then retraces
http://i.imgur.com/gVxgZYX.png currently retraced this one, above 60ish is 75 area on a 6 mo time frame
http://imgur.com/MnVW8vt after exp if we do drop there is supp around 1888 ,1994 and 2009 trendlines merge around aug 22-25
http://i.imgur.com/AD6DxLM.png that lines up with the 200day sma