ES Journal - 2014

Be like Karen super trader... Sell 2 standard deviation strike price puts..on a down spike.

you are recommending that people that don't know what their doing accept nuke risk, gotta strongly disagree there Spectre, the downside has fat tail risk up the ass and it only takes one event. :confused:
 
you are recommending that people that don't know what their doing accept nuke risk, gotta strongly disagree there Spectre, the downside has fat tail risk up the ass and it only takes one event. :confused:

If Karen can do it, we all can. When markets sell off they all look like the world is ending. But I agree it's not prudent for the novice to adopt such a method at the end of probability end of bull cycle.

After a market crashes and inception of another cycle probability is in your favor that a 2 std move downward is significantly less.

Chris
 
If Karen can do it, we all can. When markets sell off they all look like the world is ending. But I agree it's not prudent for the novice to adopt such a method at the end of probability end of bull cycle.

After a market crashes and inception of another cycle probability is in your favor that a 2 std move downward is significantly less.

Chris

I was speaking more about a tail event where you can't get out or hedge, limit up days in commodities would be one example. You and I know that market makers are laying off risk somewhere else, but it seems like when the shit really hits the fan everything is correlated ie everything gets sold at the same time so you can't hedge.

check out the chart in this article, kinda spooky. :)

http://www.crei.cat/people/voth/voth_acenturyglobal.pdf
 
Every long term algo I have is screaming we lose 500 SPX over 18 months. I am starting a new shop in April and I going to be made famous by this move.
 
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