ES Journal - 2013

[murrica]

Quote from ammo:

es si in a different tax structure and trades almost around the clock,spy you could curtail your risk with options but you have to wait for the open to get out,cheaper though, depends on your acct size , emg could hedge tha with a long ym,not exact but close in dollars for protection..he trades grains , meats, i think some currencies so it is a sideline trade for him,i think

Nice, thanks.

Was also considering things like: effect of having to roll the futures every quarter, margin interest if short SPY (presumably variable per broker and hard to predict over time), advantages of 60/40 rule trading ES as you noted, how these factors might interact, etc. -- guess one can do a more in depth analysis of ES and SPY and weigh it all out in a spreadsheet, just curious if someone has a good rule of thumb.

Might be a good exercise to better understand these products' nuances.

 

[Visaria]

where is emg these days? not seen any posts for some time.

 

[murrica]

Quote from Visaria:

where is emg these days? not seen any posts for some time.

At the bar and grill.

 

[Visaria]

ah, of course. gonna head over there now

 

[bpatson]

Quote from Trader.Fighter:

He's net positive and by a large margin, if you got any doubts, ask him.

Ammo , what % is your account up this year?

 

[Trvlwanderer]

Gonna take Friday off and do a little skiing.

It's been a good year. Very happy with the long term portfolio as the SPY adds have fattened it quite well. Good trading year as well, but always room for better execution and trade management.

Hope everyone had some great and profitable experiences as well!

Enjoy the Holiday everyone.....ES Journal 2014 will be coming soon.

 

[ammo]

Quote from bpatson:

Ammo , what % is your account up this year?

why are you here patson?

 

[bpatson]

Quote from ammo:

why are you here patson?

Trader.fighter told me to ask you. All I know is you've taken some heavy losses this year so it didn't make sense to see everyone congratulate you. If you really are beating the S&P return then I will congratulate you.

 

[ammo]

> spx has an untouched trendline that started oct
> '02 above
> http://i.imgur.com/sX2wmXY.png
> nearer more recent res is 1815
> http://i.imgur.com/u43ALrn.png
> transports are hitting an all time res line
> http://i.imgur.com/4rXKd9V.png
> shorter term they may be making a right shoulder on an hns
> pattern
> http://i.imgur.com/44WKKT5.png
> dow using the two bubble highs and the mid bubble lows have
> a res line at 16480
> http://i.imgur.com/nBRKXM3.png
> and another at 15948 that we have been tagging from above
> and below since may
> http://imgur.com/PJFsvEB
> nasdaq is up against 2 long term trendlines,one starting in
> '91
> http://i.imgur.com/R69eUsQ.png
> another starting in 2011
> http://i.imgur.com/Zbt5EXA.png
> reduced view
> http://i.imgur.com/lBEUSSJ.png
> russel
http://i.imgur.com/oU6zeho.png

>

 

[murrica]

Here's the extreme perma-bear view:

http://i.imgur.com/1veyNhC.png

Target would be in the 3,500 - 4,000 range, time dependent. Entry for such a ridiculous trade would be from these levels (above 16,000 Dow), holding for as long as the upper megaphone line holds (16,250 or perhaps a bit more, watch NYA double top, RUT log resis. at ~1155-1157.5 for next week), and hold your winners all the way down. See you in 10 years! (??)

edit: The upper line on the log chart puts the Dow around 16,500-16,600, with the current ATH being 16174.51. Interested to see how things play out in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014.