ES Journal - 2013
- Thread starter Trvlwanderer
- Start date
Even though it was a bit premature, I'm glad I exited the core short for a small loss. Asking 1806 for a new short position, with first add coming at 1822, stop at 1840. Open order for now.
Awesome trading there....you sure taking a short is a good trade here evenif your research and your trade setup suggests a short is in order, given the fact that this is time for the Santa rally to start?
Maybe in light of santa rally, its a good idea to slightly modify the trading plan and instead of taking a short at 1806 and another at 1822. Maybe get long now with a target of 1822??? Just saying...
broker research:
Despite this weekâs reversal, the S&P 500 is up over 25% year-to-date and is on target to record its best performance in 12 years. Whilst many in the market are âcautiously longâ, with a feeling that this yearâs gains are almost too good to be true, in fact annual returns in excess of 20% are not as uncommon as some might think. In the 90 years its inception in 1923, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 20% on 29 occasions, a rate of almost 1 in every 3 years.
In more recent times, however, 20%+ rallies have been slightly less frequent. The S&P 500 has rallied in excess of 20% on 12 occasions over the last 50 years, and only twice (2003 & 2009) over the last 15 years. With a view to 2014, it is interesting to examine how momentum from 20%+ annual moves in recent times has carried forward into the subsequent calendar year.
The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 in the year after posting a gain in excess of 20% dating back to 1963. On the 12 occasions, the index added on average 12.5%, and only twice delivered a negative return. These negative returns in 1981 and 1990, took place as recessions took hold. The period 1995-1998 delivered 4 consecutive years of over 20%+ growth, with the run only ending when 1999 posted +19.5%.
If history is to be a guide, therefore, a 26% upwards move is not something from which stocks must necessarily retreat. In fact, historically, the positive momentum created by a 20%+ up-move is more likely to be carried forward into 2014.
Despite this weekâs reversal, the S&P 500 is up over 25% year-to-date and is on target to record its best performance in 12 years. Whilst many in the market are âcautiously longâ, with a feeling that this yearâs gains are almost too good to be true, in fact annual returns in excess of 20% are not as uncommon as some might think. In the 90 years its inception in 1923, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 20% on 29 occasions, a rate of almost 1 in every 3 years.
In more recent times, however, 20%+ rallies have been slightly less frequent. The S&P 500 has rallied in excess of 20% on 12 occasions over the last 50 years, and only twice (2003 & 2009) over the last 15 years. With a view to 2014, it is interesting to examine how momentum from 20%+ annual moves in recent times has carried forward into the subsequent calendar year.
The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 in the year after posting a gain in excess of 20% dating back to 1963. On the 12 occasions, the index added on average 12.5%, and only twice delivered a negative return. These negative returns in 1981 and 1990, took place as recessions took hold. The period 1995-1998 delivered 4 consecutive years of over 20%+ growth, with the run only ending when 1999 posted +19.5%.
If history is to be a guide, therefore, a 26% upwards move is not something from which stocks must necessarily retreat. In fact, historically, the positive momentum created by a 20%+ up-move is more likely to be carried forward into 2014.