ES Journal - 2013

Quote from tstones:

stop hunting before taking it done. they are making it too obvious it's almost a shame.
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Did you get taken out there ? Want a hint on how to avoid something like that ?
 
15 minutes of upward momentum off open = high demand in the ES market.

Look on your historical charts and see how often you see three 5 min up bars in a row right off the open. Then see how difficult it is for supply to overtake demand using historical charts in this scenario. It usually requires some sort of exhaustion, or a buy side flush like what happened today. It rarely reverses on a dime. The nature of supply and demand off the open is an interesting thing to study. B/c some days it will change immediately and price will reverse. Other times it takes some finess. Stare at enough historical charts and u will begin to see clues. After a while, it becomes obvious and you can avoid something like that like I was able to.
 
945-950-955 bars were all showing signs of supply entering the bullish open. Market pushes down on the 10:00 bar. This to me is not a healthy pullback.

I'd never short the big green bar b/c I down counter-trend trade. I only trade in the direction of the dominant demand / supply.
 
This weak move up for instance we are seeing. Its weak, it showed some minor signs of a reversal to the upside. But the bulls are weak. In an instance like this where there's too much supply in this upward move, I will wait for the sellers to get flushed out with a small move down. When buyers take over, I buy. If it doesnt happen, I dont trade. Thats what I'm looking for now. If I see really strong bearish action, I'll short.
 
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