ES Journal - 2013

[wiesman02]

Quote from wiesman02:

Last long of the day. Long again @46.25

All out, +2.25

 

[Huyang]

Quote from NoDoji:

The initial break of a trend line is far more often than not a failure. Unless it breaks off of a narrow consolidation from a far lower high (or higher low in the case of a downtrend reversal), chances of a fake out breakout are pretty high, so that's why I watch the initial breakout for the reaction, then decide if and how to approach the entry. ES breaks out 9:35/9:36 and it's weak. Trends don't die easily, so expect price to give it another upside try. I'd short a break of the 9:42 bar as a 1-min 1-2-3 pattern, early entry for a 2nd test of the LTL, or wait for the initial failed breakout to break and then look to get short using a pullback method I described yesterday.

Shorting a break of the 9:43 bar is a bit late for the 1-2-3 early entry approach because there's not much "airspace" to work with. When I'm anticipating a reversal instead of waiting for actual signs of one, I like to at least have some airspace to the nearest price level that's likely to be defended by the group that's been in control.

ADD: BTW, this reply is referring to yesterday's action, not today, in case some of you are confused.

NoDoJi;
Very clear and informative writing. Thank you very much for your generous help.

 

[pfranz]

Quote from schizo:

Short 48

In the last posts you looked as if you were risking too much on these shorts.If I may give an advice, be careful because of two main possible dangers:
- hidden information which can move markets much higher;
- big players "clearing" the market from shorts before a big drop, just as it happened in 2007 (there were tremendous spikes up in most markets)
Be sure to control risk in these difficult cases.

 

[schizo]

Quote from pfranz:

In the last posts you looked as if you were risking too much on these shorts.If I may give an advice, be careful because of two main possible dangers:
- hidden information which can move markets much higher;
- big players "clearing" the market from shorts before a big drop, just as it happened in 2007 (there were tremendous spikes up in most markets)
Be sure to control risk in these difficult cases.

-First, thanks for your input.

-With regards to the previous shorts, it wasn't a large bet. Knowing that the market rarely reverses in one quick order, I decided to scale in with small increments. But, all in all, the entire order was a relatively small one.

-Hidden or obvious, the equity market is very extended (and everyone knows this). Of course, that's accommodated by both low-inflationary and low-growth economy. One misstep, however, this market will surely trip and break at least one of its leg.

-I ain't so sure we will again repeat the big drop of 2008 (at least not in our lifetime). That type of event happens only once in 100 years. So I doubt there will be a mop-up by the institutions. However, yes, there will be major corrections*.

*My 2-cents is that S&P will likely chop for the next few years, but the swing large enough (eg. 400-500 point swings) to play on both sides.

 

[ammo]

Quote from ammo:

with ya sal at 48..add 8.5

add 47 ,may get to todays nip at 45-45.5,may hold em for after close fed report..uvol/dvol for last 20 minutes is uvul plus 16,dvol plus 21

 

[pfranz]

Quote from NoDoji:

The initial break of a trend line is far more often than not a failure.

So why not go in the direction of the trend line (in this case, long), at least for a scalp? From what you say, it should be rewarding, with good risk control.

 

[schizo]

Quote from schizo:

Short 48

Flip long 45.50

 

[schizo]

Quote from schizo:

Flip long 45.50

Flip short 46.50

will flip long 43.75

 

[pfranz]

Quote from schizo:

With regards to the previous shorts, it wasn't a large bet.

I remember something like "going kamikaze", "I won't be around for long if it continues this way"... that's why I told you


-I ain't so sure we will again repeat the big drop of 2008 (at least not in our lifetime). That type of event happens only once in 100 years. So I doubt there will be a mop-up by the institutions.

When in summer Bernanke announced a possible tapering,before a not so big market decline there was a good spike up. Even if they are not like in 2007, these moves can still be dangerous

 

[ammo]

Quote from ammo:

add 47 ,may get to todays nip at 45-45.5,may hold em for after close fed report..uvol/dvol for last 20 minutes is uvul plus 16,dvol plus 21

reduce 6.25 will add if they pump close...add 8...8 75...9. 25 , avg 8 25