ES Journal - 2013
- Thread starter Trvlwanderer
- Start date
I don't think "the" market is that irrational. I believe we will limp to the finish line. There certainly could be a push to 1800 to wring out all the shorts....but reality will take over when all the earnings reports are out and market looks forward and tries to figure out exactly where all the growth will come from next year to justify going higher.
In the meantime I'm still selling both puts and calls...collecting cash on the puts and rolling out the calls...works pretty well in a bull market.
The initial break of a trend line is far more often than not a failure. Unless it breaks off of a narrow consolidation from a far lower high (or higher low in the case of a downtrend reversal), chances of a fake out breakout are pretty high, so that's why I watch the initial breakout for the reaction, then decide if and how to approach the entry. ES breaks out 9:35/9:36 and it's weak. Trends don't die easily, so expect price to give it another upside try. I'd short a break of the 9:42 bar as a 1-min 1-2-3 pattern, early entry for a 2nd test of the LTL, or wait for the initial failed breakout to break and then look to get short using a pullback method I described yesterday.
Shorting a break of the 9:43 bar is a bit late for the 1-2-3 early entry approach because there's not much "airspace" to work with. When I'm anticipating a reversal instead of waiting for actual signs of one, I like to at least have some airspace to the nearest price level that's likely to be defended by the group that's been in control.
ADD: BTW, this reply is referring to yesterday's action, not today, in case some of you are confused.
My biggest concern is who will be rabidly bidding up stocks when the huge baby boomer generation will be cashing in their holdings to withdraw from their retirement accounts. I don't know anyone in the subsequent generations that are invested, currently investing, or even considering investing in stocks. I imagine some hot new technologies could get them going, but right now seems like folks are thrilled to have even part time jobs.