ES Journal - 2013

Quote from NoDoji:

That chart is "just click buy" price action for me.

I don't see the ES as "overbought" until price tests (or decisively fails to test) the upper channel line connecting the swing highs on the daily chart from May through Sept. The longer term LTL broke downside earlier this month, but in a strong trend the initial break of a trend line is usually a trap, so I imagine the bots will just keep bidding this up until the previous high is tested.
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Correct. You would be 'in the money' with a breakeven stop on your long entry now. :)

I still think the 1725 area could prove as resistance and a turning point, but my gut feel is that we'll blow through it.

Could you post a chart and show us what you're talking about with regards to the long term TL?

Thanks.

PS: Enclosed is why I don't trust trend lines or trend line breaks, at least in ES. They're usually fake. If anything, wait for the pullback testing the breakout before you enter to ensure it was not a fake.
 

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Could you expand on that quote, NoDoji?

My personal experience is that the ES behaves considerably more predictable than CL, but I'm aware that could simply be because I don't know that market well enough and have probably spent only 20% of the time studying it as I have done with ES.

ES just seems more 'technical' and 'clean', so to speak.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Could you expand on that quote, NoDoji?

My personal experience is that the ES behaves considerably more predictable than CL, but I'm aware that could simply be because I don't know that market well enough and have probably spent only 20% of the time studying it as I have done with ES.

ES just seems more 'technical' and 'clean', so to speak.
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Yes, ES is very "clean", while CL, though very "technical", seems to have a lot of programmed scalping going on, plus it's a much thinner instrument so unless a well-defined trend is in progress, levels can be swept in an instant and run right back again.

I'll post the ES chart shortly before I take off.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:


Could you post a chart and show us what you're talking about with regards to the long term TL?

Thanks.
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Here tis:

attachment.php
 

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Quote from Laissez Faire:

PS: Enclosed is why I don't trust trend lines or trend line breaks, at least in ES. They're usually fake. If anything, wait for the pullback testing the breakout before you enter to ensure it was not a fake.
More...

I don't trust micro-trendline breaks in any instrument.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Could you expand on that quote, NoDoji?

My personal experience is that the ES behaves considerably more predictable than CL, but I'm aware that could simply be because I don't know that market well enough and have probably spent only 20% of the time studying it as I have done with ES.

ES just seems more 'technical' and 'clean', so to speak.
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What about YM?
 
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