ES Journal - 2013

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Maybe.

But there were people in this journal skeptical towards the long side 900 points lower than this as well.

And probably lower than that before I started reading here.

Just saying.

:)
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And how many in this journal have held a long or short for this 900 pt move. What is ur pt LF?

I am talking about present time. Levels we are at now, not 900 pts lower. Tech analysis now.
 
Quote from candles:

It is, and will always be, heavily biased to the upside.
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Yes, no doubt.

I do vaguely remember a poster named Airwaves. I also remember IC Fed. :)

I don't know if he was trading real money or not, but by his calls he made a shit load of ES points. His strategy was pretty much to simply go long or go long after a dip.

The problem with that strategy is that with leveraged instruments like futures, he must have blown up during the drops and mini-crashes we've had these last two years, unless; 1) He had stops and respected them; 2) Had deep pockets; 3) Was not trading leveraged instruments and had the opportunity to sit on his hands until his position got back in the green.

Buying the dip works until it doesn't. If you're putting on a lot of risk, a change in market conditions, even if short-lived, can do a lot of damage.

But there's no doubt where the easy money's been for the last years and I certainly don't understand why anyone is shorting right now, unless it's like you say; a scalp.

:)
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

And how many in this journal have held a long or short for this 900 pt move. What is ur pt LF?

I am talking about present time. Levels we are at now, not 900 pts lower. Tech analysis now.
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My point is that you're saying the same thing now as you did at least 200-300 points below.

Did you not say that 200-300 points lower as well? I seem to recall you as one of the permabears here?

So based on that, I wonder what's the rationale for your analysis, other than the market being 'too high' or 'the FED not knowing what they're doing and the world's going to hell?'

Please show me the technical analysis, as I currently do not see the short side.

:confused:
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:



Please show me the technical analysis, as I currently do not see the short side.

:confused:
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I am confused as well. You're active as f*ck on this thread but you never post a fill, only criticisms like "ES is a back and fill mkt". Why don't you lurk and leave the comments to guys that trade this stuff.
 
Technically, I think you can make 2 points shorting right now. I have been able to make money shorting ES at certain levels even during up days. However, I don't hold this thing over night and since I use a lower frame time chart, my TA is useless for predicting more than intraday trading.

Quote from mastacoli71:

And how many in this journal have held a long or short for this 900 pt move. What is ur pt LF?

I am talking about present time. Levels we are at now, not 900 pts lower. Tech analysis now.
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The FED is wrong guys, time to short. Said the Austrians in 2009. And in 2010. And in 2011. And in...you get the point. People have been looking for that killer correction since 2008 and have nothing to show for it but pain. It's time to admit the fed is right & they know what they are doing, QE has been a success to say the least, permabears and Austrians have been proven wrong and are probably all bankrupt by now....but some people never learn. Oh well, someone has to provide the liquidity & profit for the longs.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

No I have not but what is their balance sheet in comparison to china gov debt level? On a %basis?
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Around 19% based on external debt.

Not sure why this number matters at all to you. Not sure why you use balance sheet / external debt to measure transferrability of policy between countries.
 
Quote from TskTsk:

The FED is wrong guys, time to short. Said the Austrians in 2009. And in 2010. And in 2011. And in...you get the point. People have been looking for that killer correction since 2008 and have nothing to show for it but pain. It's time to admit the fed is right & they know what they are doing, QE has been a success to say the least, permabears and Austrians have been proven wrong and are probably all bankrupt by now....but some people never learn. Oh well, someone has to provide the liquidity & profit for the longs.
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Buffett initially refused, out of shock, disbelief, whatever, to book the $5.2B MTM loss on the Euro-style puts he sold at 1500 SPX. He rode those all the way down to 900 SPX. Imagine if you weren't Buffett and therefore constrained by exchange MTM and you shorted those puts in 2007.

Personally I don't consider it a roaring success when the same policies took us from 1575 to 666. That's a pretty big haircut if you're leveraged.
 
Will post chart tonight. Should have posted it before leaving for work today. I don't post trades, just levels I see. Went beyond that today cause could not bite my tongue. I guess LF is rubbing off on me.
 
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