ES Journal - 2013

daily reduced, same lines

i do not have any positions right now. if mkt spikes approx 20 pts tomorrow i want to short but i don't have the stones to go long and i have to see good reason other then touch of trend line. yes price is telling me we are going higher but the easy money on the long side is gone IMO. no reason for me to take that risk going into FOMC.
 

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Quote from Trader.Fighter:

Yes I know the pattern well, but it's not an easy trade, much better and safer to let the downtrend develop, no reason to short high to do well when shorting. Then it's just a matter of associating the downtrend and the megaphone. At the same time, the line does not have to hold, it is a big one, it could bend for hundreds, thousands of points, and much later, break down. This is one of the many annoyances of using counter-trending lines.
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agree. used as a guide. other things to look at before establishing a short but not too many things otherwise analysis by paralysis sets in :)
 
re: FOMC

This is a biggie one, might trade the PA after the announcement for a few scalps here and there, but predicting a direction before such a behemoth announcement like Bond Tapering etc is really not in store for me.

I think new data will reveal easier paths in the very near future, patience is most definitely a virtue on this one.

Best wishes to those with positions before the event, this fighter is currently sitting it out.
 
Did anyone actually do a study on FOMC days?

I would love to do one, but I don't have my database set up at the moment.

I seem to recall several of the last FOMC days/announcements to be 'non-events'?

I do recall a brutal initial loss on the announcement of QE2 though.

I found something here...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/777841-fomc-alpha-in-only-8-trading-days-a-year

I also seem to recall a page that compiled more comprehensive and detailed statistics on FOMC days, but could not find it right now.
 
How can the average American afford a 2014 Chevy pickup for $49,000 with an interest rate of above 4%. Probably can't unless they go to 100 month financing. We have price inflation on large items BECAUSE rates are so low.

Tricky thing these consumer interest rate effects.
 
Quote from Trvlwanderer:

How can the average American afford a 2014 Chevy pickup for $49,000 with an interest rate of above 4%. Probably can't unless they go to 100 month financing. We have price inflation on large items BECAUSE rates are so low.

Tricky thing these consumer interest rate effects.
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Oh no. According to the data there is very little price inflation, lol.

Complete disconnect between data and what is REAL. The feds know this; it's a dangerous game they are playing and they know it.

Just ask yourself this question: Does the dollar buy you as much now compared to 2007.
 
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