ES Journal - 2013
- Thread starter Trvlwanderer
- Start date
Shorting resistance is much more efficient in downtrends than uptrends, little technical addendum there as shorting "resistance" in uptrends tends to be short lived; pun intended.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
A price level could only be deemed resistance if it actually acts as resistance, yes?
So, until it acts like resistance, it's only potential resistance, no?
And with a back-fill market like ES, price levels are usually tested more than once, so why be early?
If point X acted as support or was a heavy congestion area previously, and now price is moving up towards point X, point X is a possible resistance area. Whether u want to call it resistance or not is irrelevant. How price reacts at this point is what matters and u can use this information as a clue on whether to place a trade.
Just below overnight lows before fed meeting. If signals from nq and tf daily charts are too be traded it should take out the low today -overnight. Question is are they leading or just taking a breather and other benchmarks are catching up.
My point is that it's unnecessary to guess in advance with a high risk of being wrong, unless you can justify using a tight stop, compared to entering on the pullback that is offered 9/10 times with a higher probability of price following through in your anticipated direction.
I.e., don't enter on the trend line break, enter on the pullback.
I have lost count of how many times I've entered early. Some times I've been lucky and witnessed my position go back to breakeven or slightly red while the market pulled back and tested the BO before I got paid.
Just as many times and probably more, it was a fake break that trapped early traders like myself and price snapped back, a price characteristic that was very common in ES when I was trading actively.
Some instruments may be different.
SOX and XRT never confirmed the lag in TF in terms of today's structure. But I would agree that TF divergence indicates start of distribution process before shake out after Fed mtg. As for today unless and until the SOX or XRT violate their Open I am playing for a retest of yesterday's high in the TF.