thats not correct..first of all ; the red futures is noise and it does this a lot even on a green spot. i trade nothing else...they cannot predict a thing; i would not use them as any type of indicator.
ES Journal - 2013
- Thread starter Trvlwanderer
- Start date
thats not correct..first of all ; the red futures is noise and it does this a lot even on a green spot. i trade nothing else...they cannot predict a thing; i would not use them as any type of indicator.
Just curious, do see any value in analyzing/comparing futures and a 'spot' measure?
Historically I agree, using vix/futures as a signal isn't tradeable but I do use something similar in concept that's been helpful. For example, right now I agree with Caha in that futures seem expensive, though not by much (and it wouldn't take a lot to make them a good buy) - I'm also looking for them to move lower.
Your opinion is greatly appreciated. (No sarcasm)
your welcome.
.there are lots of simple reasons they were red today (long weekend vol buyers pushing up prices..>guilty<)..but trust me..es turns down..they follow green.
That is certainly a possibility, but being a VIX trader myself, it was a very bullish day to me seeing extremely pro-taper data, a congress ready to vote for a Syrian strike, the $VIX making a move back to Fridays levels, and then seeing the SPX unable to turn red and the VIX Futures not responding as they have throughout the entire risk-off period.
I actually think futures are very expensive right now (given that we couldnt turn the tape red today on the bear's arguements with taper/syria). With SPX HV at ~10-11%, we have $VIX trading near ~17%. Usually I see a 3-4% premium on $VIX, which means we should be closer to 13-14 than 17 IMO.
Hope you're right
I was mainly interested in if he looked at the relationship btwn $vix and futures since he seemed to be saying that today's inverse relationship wasn't significant (which I don't disagree with). In that respect, I don't think futures are 'that' expensive, but agreed that often times when compared to realized vol there can be very large dislocations.
Given your view, are you shorting SP deltas against the futures or just outright short here? Fwiw, I'm just short vxx and some straddles.
Quote from Soon2Bgreat:
Hope you're right
I was mainly interested in if he looked at the relationship btwn $vix and futures since he seemed to be saying that today's inverse relationship wasn't significant (which I don't disagree with). In that respect, I don't think futures are 'that' expensive, but agreed that often times when compared to realized vol there can be very large dislocations.
Given your view, are you shorting SP deltas against the futures or just outright short here? Fwiw, I'm just short vxx and some straddles.
I go short VIX via XIV etf. If I did want to short the etf's like VXX, I'd do it with UVXY but shares of them are so hard to find most of the time.
looking for a run to 47-48