ES Journal - 2013
- Thread starter Trvlwanderer
- Start date
contrarians are used to getting caught and trade around it,no one picks tops or bottoms,on a rare occassion you get lucky,but the majority of the time caught,you have to dance ,and the market eventually pays you well,you needn't keep slamming this style of trading ,it's very profitable as is yours if you have been at it as long as you say you probably know it better than most and should speak of what you know..the reason most are here is to share and learn,so share what you know
ammo were you and me disagree is you act like every contrarian makes money and that's the furthest thing from the truth. maybe you have made money but even on this board will tell you its not for them how you trade. always being down and fighting for every inch sucks when the trend is the opp direction and many times its not near as easy as you say as the mkt grinds up for days or weeks in one direction and won't let you out. an example is facebook. contrarians who have shorted the last few days have been killed.look at tsla. fell from $130- $104. if one shorted the rebound it went straight back to $137.i always day trade for 4 pts here or 6 pts there but I want to see a trend change and pessimism before holding a longer term short. if your way of trading works for you great but 95% of people would be wiped out trading like you by either being margined out or by panicing to cover as they can't take the massive heat you take.
with spx vol so low i'm bored; but i will tell you imo u can fade a rising market (or vol) as even in strong bulls you have fast snap backs that you can reduce on. i trade vol extremely similar to how ammo trades es..well before 2008 i may add.
FB is a bad example, the stock has been trading sideways to lower since it went public over a year ago, "trend followers" were doing what they had to do - follow the trend.
You only know that the trend is higher after the fact, no trader knows if he is buying the top or selling the bottom when he is "following the trend", you will know it in hindsight. Hence "following the trend" does not give you an edge over contrarians, its still gambling.
95% get wiped out daytrading for the 4 or 6 you are talking about,i can't scalp anymore,so hat's off to you ,but the hft's are eating scalpers alive,the heat is the price of the return,i am underwater from the time i open a position til the time it reverts and if you look at a weekly chart that reversion comes nearly every month,85% of the time is my guess,but if you can trade around it and get used to it it's not that hard,easier than scalping imo
Nice trade
