ES Journal - 2013

Quote from Trvlwanderer:

many, many shorts are banking on it......
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I hear you - well, the shorts that are left :)

Also usdjpy has moved 160 pips from yesterday's low. I shorted it last night, got taken for 25 pips, am short again 100.60 when I went short ES. Stops are close but not that close.

The only thing I worry about is 1700 and the fact that big up days are 20 handles.... I am prepared to take that in return for what I see. SPX puts are "cheap" right now too.
 
Quote from rroverx:

I hear you - well, the shorts that are left :)

Also usdjpy has moved 160 pips from yesterday's low. I shorted it last night, got taken for 25 pips, am short again 100.60 when I went short ES. Stops are close but not that close.

The only thing I worry about is 1700 and the fact that big up days are 20 handles.... I am prepared to take that in return for what I see. SPX puts are "cheap" right now too.
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Calling tops in this market is a low probability effort as evidenced by the chart over the past days, weeks, months.

Position Shorts will be proven right at some point...but until then, keep the KY in a 30 gallon barrel and apply liberally.
 
I'm not top-calling, but I am trying to build a core short position and then trade around it.

Somebody has to.....

also, sentiment on ET is telling. There used to be some shorts here, now not so much. 1700 seems a given, so then maybe it's absolutely not. I do tend to believe in 80/20 though so I am putting on calendar spreads in the options.
 
Sorry if my comments seemed directed....they were not towards anyone on these boards...only the effects as a whole as we have witnessed over the past several weeks.

I shorted heavily in 06 and 07 and was proven right a year later. Not pretty in many of those instances.

My $.02 only. I'll probably open a massive, over-leveraged Long at the very top. :p
 
Ok we all know when it bust it could be a 30-40% type fall. nothing wrong with taking shorts here and there but instead of scaling as it runs wait for a drop lik last month to 1553 and a failure which this one did not have.before committing heavy you must be pretty sure this monster is dead. you might miss the first 7-9% but there could easily be another 25-30% down.This one could be on of the ugliest downs ever but its not done yet
 
tortoise ask the question who's every been long on et oiutside a crash? traders are akways negative abd supicious because of the corruption they see.look at any site or tv ftom cnbc to bloomberg. 99% are bullish
 
Quote from hafez50:

tortoise ask the question who's every been long on et oiutside a crash? traders are akways negative abd supicious because of the corruption they see.look at any site or tv ftom cnbc to bloomberg. 99% are bullish
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As much as I would like to be long term long, automated sys got in short futures earlier and bought options to hedge. But that's what the sys does, at some point, it gets in at new contract highs/lows.
 
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