ES Journal - 2013

Quote from mastacoli71:

that is similar to a buyout type move.
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Interestingly, it moved up 5.5% during the rth hours today. Maybe people knew it was going to beat expectations.

This experience leads me to wonder if we look at >5%+ moves on the earnings day or a day before earnings in stocks and buy them at the close, and short -5% moves, will it be a good strategy. Basically the edge here (if present) is that we are coat-tailing those guys who know something.

Currently, I don't trade stocks, but this should be an interesting study to undertake.
 
Quote from gmst:

Interestingly, it moved up 5.5% during the rth hours today. Maybe people knew it was going to beat expectations.

This experience leads me to wonder if we look at >5%+ moves on the earnings day or a day before earnings in stocks and buy them at the close, and short -5% moves, will it be a good strategy. Basically the edge here (if present) is that we are coat-tailing those guys who know something.

Currently, I don't trade stocks, but this should be an interesting study to undertake.
More...

The action doesn't paint a clear picture... could be from hedges...
 
Quote from gmst:

Interestingly, it moved up 5.5% during the rth hours today. Maybe people knew it was going to beat expectations.

This experience leads me to wonder if we look at >5%+ moves on the earnings day or a day before earnings in stocks and buy them at the close, and short -5% moves, will it be a good strategy. Basically the edge here (if present) is that we are coat-tailing those guys who know something.

Currently, I don't trade stocks, but this should be an interesting study to undertake.
More...

no idea. i never liked trading into earnings. friend of mine sells strangles right before announcement but he also has years of options experience, it can be a dangerous game.

or you could do what ammo suggested, take a shot on OTM option in the direction you believe it will move post earnings.
 
i did really well trading pre earnings with options... all the trades at earnings related to NQ futures and ES futures hurt me.. combined with the 465/460 credit spread i have on... all in all i'm down a little.. 200 bucks or so even considering the credit spread i'm figuring is blow out. my lesson is.. wait for the clear direction to show up.. i put my trades on pre event which was a mistake..

you know i started out taking delta bets with options.. ended up studying vol trading.. found that your still calling a direction in risk.. (your forecasting vol) to hedge book of options you have to have some sense of your spot risk.. you can be very good at gamma scalping or very good at playing hedge against short premium.. but you always have strike risk... you can't isolate vol without dynamic hedging.. and that has an unknown cost to it.. so inevitable your calling direction of something.. so the idea behind trading futures is to get a little better at that without blowing up..

thanks for the support Gmst...

i always wonder what the mechanics of the knee jerks i see before big events.. always in the opposite direction of the real move..
 
here is the 8k

yes, 1500+ is possible. intense buying. but i am fearful i am waiting on sidelines at least now:)

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Quote from gmst:

1494 showing ask size of 8000 contracts !!!
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I have never seen such blatant display of power from a large market participant before :) LOL. The fact that we touched 94 and still the 8k quantity remained on ask and did not vanish suggests that this is real size.

So, why someone wants to sell 8k at this particular price level and not sell it gradually?

Well I have a theory regarding this size.
1) Either someone has sold an exotic option like some KO type of option with strike at 1494/1494.25 and so wants to hedge the resultant exposure.
2) Or, it is some big market participant that was long in the morning and showed such big size so as to attract the bots to this size. We can see that market did a massive run-up in the first 5 minutes and since then it has been only up and up.

So, now we see that 94 has been taken out. :)
 
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