ES Journal - 2013

[Builder17]

s 6
stop 10
t 99

 

[Builder17]

Quote from Builder17:

s 6
stop 10
t 99

reduce 2.75

 

[ammo]

es cleave

 

[Builder17]

Quote from Builder17:

reduce 2.75

flat 2.5

 

[mastacoli71]

Quote from Builder17:

flat 2.5

Good trading build.

 

[Builder17]

Quote from mastacoli71:

Good trading build.

thanks, was a decent day. have a good weekend

 

[sellindexvol66]

Quote from RichardRimes:

The VIX is not confirming any panic selling, using this opportunity to sell a put or two, overall my book is still delta neg...we need a much bigger drop to instill fear into this market.


nice trading ammo...

I have seen a lot of vix talk in this thread lately and had toss out my opinion.

Vix as a prediction tool to market panic or direction is beyond nonsense. It lags ridiculously.

The vix futures do also...they react to es/spx..I cannot tell you how many times I have seen the futures not ramp on es moves down..only to do so after a big drop. Same for after a rally..they stay sticky...if someone can predict with vix hats off to you...but I doubt it.

 

[horton]

Quote from sellindexvol66:

I have seen a lot of vix talk in this thread lately and had toss out my opinion.

Vix as a prediction tool to market panic or direction is beyond nonsense. It lags ridiculously.

The vix futures do also...they react to es/spx..I cannot tell you how many times I have seen the futures not ramp on es moves down..only to do so after a big drop. Same for after a rally..they stay sticky...if someone can predict with vix hats off to you...but I doubt it.

Perhaps this is true for intraday considerations. But the location of the VIX is informative in the daily chart and I use it regularly to decide when to start taking intraquarter swing trading setups in my equity portfolio.

 

[RichardRimes]

Quote from sellindexvol66:



Vix as a prediction tool to market panic or direction is beyond nonsense. It lags ridiculously.

Agree that it lags and is not a good prediction tool. However it does IMO confirm a general attitude in the market place. A 13 vix which changes only 20-30 cents in the face of a 10p12 pt drop is a complacent market . It suggests....not predicts....upward bias.

 

[nillionaire]

Quote from RichardRimes:

Agree that it lags and is not a good prediction tool. However it does IMO confirm a general attitude in the market place. A 13 vix which changes only 20-30 cents in the face of a 10p12 pt drop is a complacent market . It suggests....not predicts....upward bias.

A few things:

1) Nowadays a 10-12 pt drop isn't THAT big with the market over 1700. It meant more a few years ago when the market was closer to 1000.

2) The VIX actually had an 80 cent intraday rise today.

3) The VIX is already slightly elevated in the 13s now. The last time we made new highs in August, the VIX actually fell into the 11s.