The common denominator in all of these issues is the Fed's determination to avoid deflation at all costs, even when said deflation is driven by beneficial supply side factors such as technological innovation and global labor arbitrage. The inflation has to come from somewhere and when the supply side is not offering it up the banking system will oblige by any means necessary. So yes for all practical purposes the Fed is to blame.
ES Journal - 2013
- Thread starter Trvlwanderer
- Start date
You should send Ben a link to the ES Journal, so that he can be enlightened.
What does rubbing off on you, mean?
Regarding my initial post as a response to your post, I'm not saying I would go long at this point either, but I would certainly not short either.
My main point is that people have been protesting againt this up trend in this journal and on this forum for the last 5 years, believing the market to be too high and that the entire system will collapse any minute, when the fact is that the market is in a strong up trend that will probably continue rather than reverse at this point.
Hell, I've been one of the disbelievers myself, but being stubborn and mixing one's own ideological views with price action can be very costly in the market. Regardless, monetary policy have favoured the stock market anyway.
The argument that the market is 'too high' and how the FED is wrong, has clearly not been working, so why should it now?
If and when a financial crisis is upon us, the market won't drop to zero in one day. There will be plenty of time to short.
So that's why I'm asking the shorts, in a journal dedicated to market analysis. Why short now?
No hard feelings, okay?
Quote from Laissez Faire:
You should send Ben a link to the ES Journal, so that he can be enlightened.
What does rubbing off on you, mean?
Regarding my initial post as a response to your post, I'm not saying I would go long at this point either, but I would certainly not short either.
My main point is that people have been protesting againt this up trend in this journal and on this forum for the last 5 years, believing the market to be too high and that the entire system will collapse any minute, when the fact is that the market is in a strong up trend that will probably continue rather than reverse at this point.
Hell, I've been one of the disbelievers myself, but being stubborn and mixing one's own ideological views with price action can be very costly in the market. Regardless, monetary policy have favoured the stock market anyway.
The argument that the market is 'too high' and how the FED is wrong, has clearly not been working, so why should it now?
If and when a financial crisis is upon us, the market won't drop to zero in one day. There will be plenty of time to short.
So that's why I'm asking the shorts, in a journal dedicated to market analysis. Why short now?
No hard feelings, okay?
Right on.
In that case..
Waiting for PA to confirm the gap is getting filled makes more sense so we can use good tools available to us like margin and leverage basing it all on a proper PA stop so you know exactly how much you can lose when wrong.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
So that's why I'm asking the shorts, in a journal dedicated to market analysis. Why short now?
Why go long now ?
My short position is based on a trendline that spx touched
Since after hours this has become a market bias mini discussion I will add my two cents.
LF has an excellent point ..I understand the market drops faster for scalpers than it up crashes even in the run from 666; but a viable strategy has been to buy dips since then.
Needless to say I have earned more than most and that's what I have done. I think its intellectually dishonest and plain wrong to tell LF he has no point . He is not saying to buy here is my understanding... simply buy dips.
LF has an excellent point ..I understand the market drops faster for scalpers than it up crashes even in the run from 666; but a viable strategy has been to buy dips since then.
Needless to say I have earned more than most and that's what I have done. I think its intellectually dishonest and plain wrong to tell LF he has no point . He is not saying to buy here is my understanding... simply buy dips.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
You should send Ben a link to the ES Journal, so that he can be enlightened.
What does rubbing off on you, mean?
Regarding my initial post as a response to your post, I'm not saying I would go long at this point either, but I would certainly not short either.
My main point is that people have been protesting againt this up trend in this journal and on this forum for the last 5 years, believing the market to be too high and that the entire system will collapse any minute, when the fact is that the market is in a strong up trend that will probably continue rather than reverse at this point.
Hell, I've been one of the disbelievers myself, but being stubborn and mixing one's own ideological views with price action can be very costly in the market. Regardless, monetary policy have favoured the stock market anyway.
The argument that the market is 'too high' and how the FED is wrong, has clearly not been working, so why should it now?
If and when a financial crisis is upon us, the market won't drop to zero in one day. There will be plenty of time to short.
So that's why I'm asking the shorts, in a journal dedicated to market analysis. Why short now?
No hard feelings, okay?
No hard feelings at all. I just remember you as being very argumentative in the past so I was making a joke about rubbing off.
Look, I have no idea what the market is going to do and I am not going to argue that buying the dips does not work over the long term.
I look at levels at the time they are hit both on the long side and short side. I don't claim to pick tops or bottoms. The point I was making is going long right now into all these trend lines is not a high prob trade IMO. You see it differently and like I told another guy (can't remember his username right now) and I will tell you the same IF you are going long I wish you good luck. What I have learned over the years: some are good long traders, some short, but it is rare to find one that can trade both successfully over the long term.
I disclosed that I have no position when I posted a few days ago and I will disclose the same thing now. I HAVE NO POSITION.
Here is the chart as promised from earlier and a response to you as to why I would not be taking a long position right now even with the price action. I have several other reasons and it has ZERO to do with ECONOMICS.
Peace and I wish all success in trading.
reduced, same lines