ES Journal - 2013

Quote from hitchslap:

I've been posting longs all week. All winners :cool:
I learnt years ago that it's easy making money on the long side on the ES, and that shorting it is a fools game.

I think i'm on my own, though! lol.

Be bidirectional or suffer the consequences.

Go with the flow.
 
Thanks hafez for yet another outstanding contribution to the ES Journal.

Seems many people make foolish assumptions about the folks who contribute on these boards. I for one post less than 10% of my trades, so attempting to guess a "bias" is foolhardy. Some seem to short a lot...so what.

I guess I try not to jump to those silly conclusions while enjoying watching what other traders see (on their screens) and do. Makes for an interesting place.

If I want to start some shatt....a jack hershey thread is never far away. :p

btw, I wouldn't send proof of jack sh!t to anyone on a discussion forum...go back-off in your own jack-yard.
 
trvlwander if you're trying to make a living following how others are trading then you're in trouble.This is mostly for relieve of boredom for many people going to boards.Actually outside don miller or maybe a few guys threw threw the yrs I can't recall one person making a living trading futures and I mean not one.If someone has made 10k on here shorting in 2013 I want to be motivated and it tells me it can be done. But frankly I don't believe it
 
Quote from hafez50:

trvlwander if you're trying to make a living following how others are trading then you're in trouble.

Again, you make assumptions.

No worries. It is human nature. You are not immune to these quirks and prejudices.

Thanks again for your valued input.
 
Michael Marcus also serves as a person that many beginners can relate to: His began by losing most of his money and with very mediocre trading skills. With help and guidance from his mentor, Ed Seykota, he began winning and profiting in the commodity markets.

Lesson #1: Each Trader has A Distinct Style
"You also have to follow your own light. Because I have so many friends who are talented traders, I often have to remind myself that if I try to trade their way, or on their ideas, I am going to lose. Every trader has strengths and weaknesses. Some are good holders of winners, but may hold their losers a little too long. Others may cut their winners a little short, but are quick to take their losses. As long as you stick to your own style, you get the good and the bad in your own approach. When you try to incorporate someone else's style, you often wind up with the worst of both styles. I've done that a lot."

This is a very important point: You have to find out your strength and weaknesses and develop a trading style that suits your personality best. If you are good at holding winners - trade trend-following systems. If you are comfortable with several consecutive small losses and several big wins - trade chart patterns. If you are highly disciplined and not too aggressive - you could focus only on high-quality trades which come rarely. Let your personality choose your trading style.

Lesson #2: Always Use Stops
“Always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point"

This one's a no-brainer, but worth mentioning. Many beginners tend to discard stop losses after seeing several trades touching their stop loss and then continuing in their direction. Very wrong approach. Putting stop loss is crucial for your trading success and performance. If you stop loss is placed in logical place (A.K.A: Support or Resistance level), you should have no reason not to respect it - if price touched it, the basis for your position has voided and staying in the position is highly risky. Also, always have an emergency stop in case of sudden news or catastrophe.

Lesson #3: Trade Less
"I think the secret is cutting down the number of trades you make. The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that the fundamentals suggest. Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone."

Do not overtrade. Take only highest-quality trades that has many confirmations from several timeframes and indicators. Of course, using fundamentals in FOREX and intra-day trading is a bit of an overshoot, but confirming with several dimensions is very useful in maximizing win rate and increasing Risk:Reward. Restricting yourself to high-quality trades requires strong discipline, but it very rewarding.

Lesson #4: Trade Markets You Know
"At that time, we had many wild markets. One of my rules was to get out when the volatility and the momentum became absolutely insane."

Michael Marcus restricted himself to trade in market environments he is comfortable with - markets with less volatility that are more predictable and technical-oriented. This enabled him to decrease his losing trades and maximize his hit rate. Try to trade at markets and market envionments you know best, and disregard 'uncharted territory'.

Rogue Trader use the FOREX Market as his Personal ATM Machine
With World Class Trading Indicator!

Lesson #5: Strict Money Management
"The first thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea."

This rule enabled Michael Marcus to withstand long periods of losses, but still be an active participant at the markets, eventually to recover and win back his losses. Risking more than 5% per trade opens up a possibility of losing your entire account - so you could not continue trading and recover. Remember, each trade is probabilistic and even excellent trading systems can perform badly in some occasions. The goal of Money Management is to avoid wiping your account in those ruff times.
 
Quote from hitchslap:

I've been posting longs all week. All winners :cool:
I learnt years ago that it's easy making money on the long side on the ES, and that shorting it is a fools game.

You're trading the way you're comfortable, which is why it's easy.

You extracted 14 ES pts from a trade in May, but you had to hold through 4 overnight sessions to achieve that target. There is additional risk holding overnight because in such a thin market a major news event could result in a loss larger than your target if a stop was triggered.

Those who trade short only or who trade both directions were able to extract 14 ES pts or more intraday on many days during the strong multi-leg pullback following the close of your May trade.

The reason some traders like to trade short only, even in a bull market, is because the pullbacks and corrections tend to be stronger and faster than the moves up.

Was shorting a fool's game between June 2008 and March 2009? In my opinion, the only fool's game is trading without a plan and proper mindset.
 
Hikkake
The Johnson Report on Day Traders

Ronald L. Johnson prepared a report for the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA, a consumer protection group trying to keep the futures industry honest) on the success of retail traders. He chose at random 30 accounts (not a very big sample size, I'll agree) from a retail trading firm. You can easily find this report on the Internet, simply by searching for "the Johnson Report" or similar.
This study found that 18 of the 26 accounts lost money. In addition, risk of ruin calculations on the trader's statistics found that in theory, three quarters of the sample were headed inexorably toward failure, with a 100% risk of ruin.

Furthermore, the 8 accounts that were profitable also had a very high risk of ruin. Only three of the eight accounts that made any money had a risk of ruin low enough to imply any significant success as a speculative trader (under 25%). For example one of the winning accounts made 93% of his/her total profit on just one trade ($7,650), without that trade 99 other trades would have netted only $610 in total, indicating that luck may account for much of this performance.

The most successful trader in the group had an average holding period of 47 days, and did not day trade. (The other accounts not accounted for as winners or losers only had a couple of transactions and were not statistically valid).

Conclusions of this study: the great majority of traders surveyed had a risk of ruin so high as to make eventual bankruptcy virtually inevitable. The traders with the shortest time frames (day traders) lost the most money and had the highest risk of ruin.

The report also found that the average holding time for winning trades was much shorter than the holding time for losing trades, indicating that traders were cutting their winners early but letting their losses run.

The study ignored the effects of tax, and did not comment on whether or not the few winners actually performed better than index funds, merely whether they were profitable or not in absolute terms.

borrowed from slope of hope
 
Back
Top