ES Journal - 2013

Short 1692.75. If today is not the top, I will never post here again as I will be too busy licking wounds and serving fries and big macs.

Stop 1701, again target is 1520-.
 
Just having fun. For the record I have been shorting this since 1620 with more failure than success, over 200 points now. Hope this illustrates how bias and anchoring are a trader's Achilles heel. I am as flawed as they come, trust me.

That being said what I have seen unfold over the last few days in terms of divergences in the indices is a sure sign of a short term, if not longer term top. I expect the v's to take over, volume and volatility and everyone shaking their collective heads and agreeing at the same time that they saw it coming. 1520- or no JI Joe with the kung foo grip for Christmas.

Good luck to you too ammo.

Quote from ammo:

86 5 bid for a reduce,have a good day,good luck star, we may have to wait til eom
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strait over time top ticking shorts is a losing strategy period. The mkt rises 70% of the time but traders in general have a negative bias. The top of the bull mkt could well be near so why not wait till you see weakness before shorting? For all the time one shorts and gets stopped out he could have saved himself some pain by shorting weakness with stop and then adding. If the bull mkt is near an end theres 700-1000 es pts down so why worry about the first 50?
 
Agree and pointed out my own demons. Like I said, the divergences that developed were the weakness. Paying attention to reality and not anchors and bias is the key to the kingdom.


Quote from hafez50:

strait over time top ticking shorts is a losing strategy period. The mkt rises 70% of the time but traders in general have a negative bias. The top of the bull mkt could well be near so why not wait till you see weakness before shorting? For all the time one shorts and gets stopped out he could have saved himself some pain by shorting weakness with stop and then adding. If the bull mkt is near an end theres 700-1000 es pts down so why worry about the first 50?
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Quote from startraitor:

That being said what I have seen unfold over the last few days in terms of divergences in the indices is a sure sign of a short term, if not longer term top.
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IMHO, you should wait until there's a clear price action reversal signal like we had back in May at the previous swing high. This is the strongest bull swing in the past year. With a trend this strong, I'd say that price is the only reliable confirmation of a change in trend.
 
Response to rroverx...

Because we have already put in 8 pts to the downside, and volume is very light I would guess not likely to make a new high for the day. More likely a slow, painful retrace to 50%, I would think. Can't rule 1684 out completely yet either. We will need a good strong close inside the value area to rule that highly unlikely. (It is Tuesday, however. :D )
 
Quote from piezoe:

Response to rroverx...

Because we have already put in 8 pts to the downside, and volume is very light I would guess not likely to make a new high for the day. More likely a slow, painful retrace to 50%, I would think. Can't rule 1684 out completely yet either. We will need a good strong close inside the value area to rule that highly unlikely.
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Thanks for response.

I was just going on yesterdays price action... same dash to a LOD, then a full retracement in something like 1.5 hours..... almost like creating a trade by drawing in shorts then driving it up v-shaped.

I'm taking off my short position now 88.5. It was too large of a position for me to be comfortable - in case we do run up to HOD.
 
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