ES Journal - 2013

[SideTrader]

Quote from iloveoptions:

Anyone know the top 5 largest market % gains in a calendar year?

Here's some data since 1975 on the SPX. i see 34, 31, 31, 27 and 26.

http://www.1stock1.com/1stock1_141.htm

 

[gmst]

Quote from SideTrader:

Here's some data since 1975 on the SPX. i see 34, 31, 31, 27 and 26.

http://www.1stock1.com/1stock1_141.htm

Thanks. We started 2013 at 1462.
Today value = 1650.
So, runup = 12.85%.

Looking at historical close-open %ages, we are nowhere near extreme. If fed doesn't ends its various programs and we have a 20% year, then we are looking at atleast another 110 (1760) points from here!!!

 

[mastacoli71]

Quote from gmst:

Thanks. We started 2013 at 1462.
Today value = 1650.
So, runup = 12.85%.

Looking at historical close-open %ages, we are nowhere near extreme. If fed doesn't ends its various programs and we have a 20% year, then we are looking at atleast another 110 (1760) points from here!!!

Not out of the question but with any decent size pullback is another story not to mention avg weekly and monthly returns.

 

[gmst]

Quote from mastacoli71:

Not out of the question but with any decent size pullback is another story not to mention avg weekly and monthly returns.

Yes, only thing this simple exercise did for me was that - it put my head back in perspective.

I was thinking this market is going up everyday, needs to come down. But now I am much more amenable to this idea that we might go up a lot more! So, good to keep head in balance and have some perspective in trading.

What this means on the execution side is that I will trade what I see and not what I think ought to happen since its overdue

 

[gmst]

Quote from gmst:

someone made this exact same observation after the december overnight flash crash.

However, if memory serves me right i don't think that low was revisited. I am outside and I only have my RTH charts with me now, so i can't confirm looking at globex.

Just wanted everyone to take note that the low established during April when twitter hacked news of AP feed citing explosions in white house came did not get re-visited.

Now, my opinion about such flash crash lows has completely changed. Now, I think that in a clear bull market, if you have a flash crash, the low established will act as a good point to put your stop beneath it and go long and go to beach.

 

[iloveoptions]

gmst,

SPY closed 2012 at 142.41
So based on the % gains the responder posted of 34,31,31,27,26
it would equal to 190.82, 185.55, 185.55, 180.86, 179.43 respectively.
I say the market touches your number of 1760 or even more which should be close to 176 SPY equivalent.

Quote from gmst:

Thanks. We started 2013 at 1462.
Today value = 1650.
So, runup = 12.85%.

Looking at historical close-open %ages, we are nowhere near extreme. If fed doesn't ends its various programs and we have a 20% year, then we are looking at atleast another 110 (1760) points from here!!!

 

[gmst]

Quote from iloveoptions:

I say the market touches your number of 1760 or even more which should be close to 176 SPY equivalent.

Yes, it does seem very plausible to me.

Also thanks for asking that question of top 5 historical returns. I was beginning to think that everyday we are going up and maybe its not sustainable and we will correct 30-50 points. But now I will be buying if a slight correction happens.

 

[iloveoptions]

Quote from gmst:

Yes, it does seem very plausible to me.

Also thanks for asking that question of top 5 historical returns. I was beginning to think that everyday we are going up and maybe its not sustainable and we will correct 30-50 points. But now I will be buying if a slight correction happens.

I see no more than down to 1550 if we correct this year which would equal nearly 6.2% pullback, specially if the market wants to reach 1760 by year end.

 

[mastacoli71]

Quote from iloveoptions:

I see no more than down to 1550 if we correct this year which would equal nearly 6.2% pullback, specially if the market wants to reach 1760 by year end.

1593 is key level, we can reach that in a day with any type of selling pressure.

 

[ammo]

there is an unwritten 10 day in house rule for brokerage firms,if you(broker) are pumping abc stock,and your clients are buying,you could always buy it at the open and sell it at the close for 1/2 pt or more on the mere fact that you know they will buy,,for the stocks that they pump,to avoid this temptation, they must hold them for ten days,loosely applied, the indexes follow the same rule often,tomorrow is day ten of this little pump