ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from tihfa:

spectre,

can you elaborate what you mean by 'price outlier'?

is it a 'fat tail', a price movement off of failed mean reversion? or?

thanks,
tihfa

a price outlier is any price that is implied to be least transacted in the future. In the past statistical measures can be used to elucidate what were past price outliers.

When a trendline breaks, the price where the line is broken is a outlier, since price move away from the point of break. Similar to support or resistance break. It can be any price that is rarely seen.

Best price outliers are found during retracements against a trend on longer timeframes.

The cost of a long straddle (premiums on both calls and puts at the same strike price, might be too high to pay given the underlying volatility. Instead, a algo is used to create a synthetic long straddle at price outlier.

If the implied premium is high enough, you could do a short straddle, and go long a synthetic straddle.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

a price outlier is any price that is implied to be least transacted in the future. In the past statistical measures can be used to elucidate what were past price outliers.

When a trendline breaks, the price where the line is broken is a outlier, since price move away from the point of break. Similar to support or resistance break. It can be any price that is rarely seen.

Best price outliers are found during retracements against a trend on longer timeframes.

The cost of a long straddle (premiums on both calls and puts at the same strike price, might be too high to pay given the underlying volatility. Instead, a algo is used to create a synthetic long straddle at price outlier.

thanks for clarification. though dont know much about options but think i have an idea. will do some more reading tomorrow. :) very generous of you to share the concept.... :cool:
 
Quote from Daring:

You are assuming he even had a position.

lol, good pt. i know volente is just joking around, it's all good, just having some fun during the holidays.

merry Xmas to all.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

another flash crash brewing? this just goes to show market does not care even if it is day before Xmas eve. sick.

can't imagine how many people bought in at the close on friday... I was hoping to sell on monday morning, but pointless now.
 
Quote from sammybea:

can't imagine how many people bought in at the close on friday... I was hoping to sell on monday morning, but pointless now.

everyone thinking santa was coming to town
 
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