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ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Quote from Laissez Faire:
Question.
How do you weigh ETH price action versus RTH price action? Equally?
It has always been logical to me that RTH (using 4PM close) is by far the most important period since that is when the stock market and SPY trades.
However, I have observed that the overnight high and low often are important price levels during RTH and because of that I plot them. Incidentally, the overnight low today was 1 tick below S1.
Pivot levels happened to mark the overnight high and low many times last week as well. Have not done an extensive study on it.
I do however not pay that much attention to S/R and trendlines using ETH charts. Am I making a mistake?
Curious to hear your thoughts.
Basically I feel you have to consider both equally. Sometimes a range, level, or pivot based on the full session is important, other times not so much. Look at the high today so far ... R10 off pre-mkt low and nice secondary channel high off pivots from Friday's low and today's pre-mkt high. Good resistance there and possible HOD.
To LF - I have never looked at Globex levels. So, I could be missing something relevant and helpful there.
IMHO, there are Four ways to think intuitively about importance of globex levels:
1) ES is a derivative of stocks, so stock RTH hours should be most important
2) However, there is a correlation between global markets. So, what happens during Europe and Asia does get reflected in ES price and those levels should have importance.
3) Most of important news like earnings, frauds etc. on US stocks get announced pre or post market. If a significant news for a major stock like AAPL, MSFT, CAT, JPM etc. gets announced, then it should affect the whole sector, which would affect ES price. So, important levels of ES that get established due to stock specific news or geopolitical news during pre or post market price level should have significance.
4) ES Liquidity is smaller during Globex compared to RTH, so stop runs etc. should be easier to implement during Globex. This means Globex levels should not have much significance.
Now, all the above is hypothetical things that come to mind on thinking. Whether globex levels have any statistical validity or not can only be established after some analysis.
IMHO, there are Four ways to think intuitively about importance of globex levels:
1) ES is a derivative of stocks, so stock RTH hours should be most important
2) However, there is a correlation between global markets. So, what happens during Europe and Asia does get reflected in ES price and those levels should have importance.
3) Most of important news like earnings, frauds etc. on US stocks get announced pre or post market. If a significant news for a major stock like AAPL, MSFT, CAT, JPM etc. gets announced, then it should affect the whole sector, which would affect ES price. So, important levels of ES that get established due to stock specific news or geopolitical news during pre or post market price level should have significance.
4) ES Liquidity is smaller during Globex compared to RTH, so stop runs etc. should be easier to implement during Globex. This means Globex levels should not have much significance.
Now, all the above is hypothetical things that come to mind on thinking. Whether globex levels have any statistical validity or not can only be established after some analysis.
Thanks for the input on ETH, guys. Good points from you all.
Fed day on Wednesday. Like I said earlier, we may very well be caught inside last week's range until then, capping any attempt to go both higher or lower.
I hate this type of market.
Not much to do with a 6,5 point range, unless one captured a few small swings.
Quote from gmst:
why is market so dead today - does anyone has any theory???
Fed day on Wednesday. Like I said earlier, we may very well be caught inside last week's range until then, capping any attempt to go both higher or lower.
I hate this type of market.
Not much to do with a 6,5 point range, unless one captured a few small swings.
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