ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from iloveoptions:

Why are you targeting that area for shorts, may I ask?
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Its a technical intra-day short.
1. We are at top of yesterday's range and we had a strong run-up yesterday afternoon. Probability of a continued strong run-up continuation today morning is less than 30%.
2. We are beyond classic TA bollingers/keltner etc. currently. Just expecting a pull back here.

A very happy thanksgiving to everyone on board!
 
Quote from gmst:

Its a technical intra-day short.
1. We are at top of yesterday's range and we had a strong run-up yesterday afternoon. Probability of a continued strong run-up continuation today morning is less than 30%.
2. We are beyond classic TA bollingers/keltner etc. currently. Just expecting a pull back here.
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Very well. It looks like it's going your way nicely.
So how did you arrive at that specific probability?
 
Quote from iloveoptions:

Very well. It looks like it's going your way nicely.
So how did you arrive at that specific probability?
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I did a small study on this sometime back. I roughly defined chance of next day early morning continued run up post yesterdays strong afternoon runup. I don't only go by this number but I do keep it in the back of my mind when taking trades on days like today.
 
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