ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from Rol:

So essentially, when market is range bound, you countertrend trade, and when trending, you buy/ sell in the direction of the trend. And using a simple EMA to guide you keeps it simple. Stops could be placed fairly tight, because you would soon know if the market is not behaving as anticipated. Makes me want to open a futures account!

The basic premise is correct.

When the market is ranged bound, you buy or short when price is extended from the mean, presumably with some confluence at the aformentioned extension.

When the market is trending, entering on pullbacks, the same.

I'm seriously dumbing it down here but you get the idea.

Ok, let's fast forward to reality.

Now, here's what few speak of, on which timeframe?

The trend, if one is present, is your friend, ok, on which timeframe?

There are times the fast timeframes dictate larger ones, these are often called breakouts. The vast majority of times, the larger timeframes dictate the smaller ones. Faster timeframes are naturally, constantly changing states, bigger timeframes obviously take a bit longer to change them.

Trends and ranges within trends and ranges, takes years and years to master that, and you want to dumb it down to the above and open a futures account?

My advice is do your homework first, learn about what I just typed, then when it clicks, go for it, first on sim, then small cash, and so forth.

Best of luck.
 
Quote from clearinghouse:

Ok, but the guy who has to trade the small snapbacks here and there are bound to be wrong.

All traders are bound to be wrong sooner or later, it's how they manage it that makes a difference in their equity curve. They don't use their stop loss as an indicator they were wrong. They accept they were wrong quickly, take a breakeven or a small loss, and move on to more winning trades or wait till the conditions are right for them.

Quote from clearinghouse:

there were actual guys flinging serious numbers of contracts back and forth.

I appologize for not understanding what point you are trying to make here?

All the best!
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

The basic premise is correct.

When the market is ranged bound, you buy or short when price is extended from the mean, presumably with some confluence at the aformentioned extension.

When the market is trending, entering on pullbacks, the same.

I'm seriously dumbing it down here but you get the idea.

Ok, let's fast forward to reality.

Now, here's what few speak of, on which timeframe?

The trend, if one is present, is your friend, ok, on which timeframe?

There are times the fast timeframes dictate larger ones, these are often called breakouts. The vast majority of times, the larger timeframes dictate the smaller ones. Faster timeframes are naturally, constantly changing states, bigger timeframes obviously take a bit longer to change them.

Trends and ranges within trends and ranges, takes years and years to master that, and you want to dumb it down to the above and open a futures account?

My advice is do your homework first, learn about what I just typed, then when it clicks, go for it, first on sim, then small cash, and so forth.

Best of luck.

GREAT POST!
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

The data doesn't warrant it unless news events propel higher. Mean reversion takes price to equilibrium and price can resume it's downward course and chop creating a wedge chart pattern that wedge can eventually break up or down.. The wedge is 1444-1440 to 1430 trendline. The recent chart posted shows what possibilities are.

Price action is unique to each and each market has it's personality. That personality is a construct of the market participants. Those participants change as day n night cycle runs it's course across the globe.


Notice price gravitating toward 1430..
 
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