You quoted me from a terrible call I made yesterday- thanks.
Almost immediately after my post the market played out my "I could be wrong, we'll see" scenario in the worst way ... lol.I always find it tricky being caught between equally compelling gaps from different days. To your "guarantee", I have one case in my records from the past 5 years where the markert did 3 consecutive days of unfilled same-direction gaps (based on Globex close, not cash). So, yes 44 was a near guarantee from 5+ down overnight, but there was not a play for that in RTH today. Wouldn't you know it, the 28.75 gap I mentioned as a possibility for filling yesterday, ended up being the play for this morning. :eek:
ADD: In general, playing for a 2nd day gap to fill starting at just 5pts/gap in AH seems risky to me. Pek, how do you gauge where you want to enter those plays? IMO, it's risky fading before the gap reaches 15 or 20, based on stats of the few uncommon but not uheard of unfilled 2nd day gaps ... e.g., yesterday. (3rd day I suppose is a different story).
