ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from gmst:

LOL.....So I see you are short, ammo is short and Mastacoli is not short but his bias is short. I am short too.

If 95% traders lose over time, it means all of us are going to lose :)

Only thing that worries me is the huge run-up we have seen in ES, Euro and Aud over the last couple of days. Even the closing bar today was strongly green. This can be interpreted as two way.

1. Traders were short and they have covered their shorts before the news.

2. Smart traders are getting long before the news because they think news is not going to be as bad as expected. Thats why market is running high for last few days, and hasn't been able to break below 1310 this week for any meaningful time.

Both the above rationales are against my position. So, I am worried.
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Don't read too much into this. I have been way off the last few weeks so since I am finally not short, that is the time it will trade off huge. Market is way too complacent for it not to shyte to bed. I just could not handle another 20 pt move against me and trade it successfully. Such is trading for me lately.

You will be fine with one contract either way.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

Don't read too much into this. I have been way off the last few weeks so since I am finally not short, that is the time it will trade off huge. Market is way too complacent for it not to shyte to bed. I just could not handle another 20 pt move against me and trade it successfully. Such is trading for me lately.

You will be fine with one contract either way.
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Being short over the Greece election weekend worried me, so no positions for me. I couldn't see any downside and only upside this weekend. Recall Euro/USD broke down from its 1.30 support level during the first big fat Greek election.

Either:
1. New Democracy wins (probable scenario). Euro rallies huge, so does SPX.

or

2. Syriza wins causing market turmoil overnight, but Central Banks immediately coordinate to ease any liquidity crunch, so SPX runs up even more come Monday morning.
 
Quote from flipside21:

Being short over the Greece election weekend worried me, so no positions for me. I couldn't see any downside and only upside this weekend. Recall Euro/USD broke down from its 1.30 support level during the first big fat Greek election.

Either:
1. New Democracy wins (probable scenario). Euro rallies huge, so does SPX.

or

2. Syriza wins causing market turmoil overnight, but Central Banks immediately coordinate to ease any liquidity crunch, so SPX runs up even more come Monday morning.
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You missed 1 scenario not talked about much by the talking heads. What happens if election is inconclusive? Although higly unlikely, it can happen.
 
SPX daily

now i really wish i stayed short over the weekend. hindsight. should have been charting diff scenarios throughout the day friday, lesson learned. on top of that, talking heads really pumping this weekend up as bulls / historical bears turning bullish come out of the woods the last few days along with central bank if then scenarios.
 

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Quote from gmst:

for the first time I have left 1 contract short position in ES over the weekend. We have rallied after the possible G7 intervention speculation following events this weekend, but there is a good chance that something very bad happens this weekend. So, I have left 1 car short.

I hope markets won't open like 20 points against me, that would cause me to lose 1000$.

Edit: I am short from 1335.25
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How can you be carrying a position overnight:confused: Last I read you only have 2000+ in your account.

Is this 1 contract short a sim trade?
 
Quote from Macho:

How can you be carrying a position overnight:confused: Last I read you only have 2000+ in your account.

Is this 1 contract short a sim trade?
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Didn't know I am being followed so closely :)

I wired some funds into my account, enough to carry a position overnight. Next few weeks, I would wire more, don't want to be undercapitalised anymore while pursuing serious trading.

This short position over the weekend was actually not in my plan.
I had shorted around 16:12 EST and my plan was close the position around 16:14:30, but my platform kind of froze and I got stuck with this one. I am hopeful damage won't be very big though. A gap of 20 points against me is something I can possibly take, anything more and it will hurt.
 
Quote from gmst:

Didn't know I am being followed so closely :)

I wired some funds into my account, enough to carry a position overnight. Next few weeks, I would wire more, don't want to be undercapitalised anymore while pursuing serious trading.

This short position over the weekend was actually not in my plan.
I had shorted around 16:12 EST and my plan was close the position around 16:14:30, but my platform kind of froze and I got stuck with this one. I am hopeful damage won't be very big though. A gap of 20 points against me is something I can possibly take, anything more and it will hurt.
More...

Big brother is watching. Hehe :p
 
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