ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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flat 92, the worst 3 day stretch for me this month. time to walk away for the month before i piss everything away i made this month.
1275.25 is 200 day SMA. in this kind of market, not sure how relevant it really is.
i dunno, for some reason this market weakness feels different then others in the past 3 years. almost feels like 2008 is about to repeat itself but what do i know.
i dunno, for some reason this market weakness feels different then others in the past 3 years. almost feels like 2008 is about to repeat itself but what do i know.
have to like his style 1st chart http://stockcharts.com/public/1094617/tenpp/1
Interesting that you bring that up. I made a post on this selloff feeling like a bear market in my blog today.
Bear Market Prelude
This is bear market action. Something feels different this time, the fact that we don't capitulate, we drip down in drabs with traders playing for a bounce and hoping for a rally to sell into. This never happened in the selloffs in 2009, 2010, 2011. We always had quick selloffs with big down days thrown in regularly. And the selloffs were never this calm and collected and continuous. We are down 120 points in 2 weeks and there is no capitulation. No really big selloff days, limited volatility intraday, just steady selling with rallies dying within hours, not even one day. I think we have to get down to 1260 before we can get a real bounce. The bagholders are just weighing down on this market and the smart money is steadily dumping their holdings.
Thankfully I have never been on a sinking ship (except canoes and sailboats at summer camp), but this market action is how I imagine it would go down as the ship sinks.
The captain and crew (Big Money) who know what is about to take place calmly gather their belongings and plan their exit from the doomed vessel. Once they have made their way safely to the lifeboats with everything they can carry, the order is given to abandon ship. At that point all hell breaks loose, and the passengers (retail traders) are left to figure out how to survive.
All the fundamentals of the market indicate things are not going to get better any time soon. The actions of the Fed to prop up the economy are simply to give their masters (Big Money) time to get in the lifeboats and safely to shore. Once the Fed runs out of bullets and the fit hits the shan, the market will sink like the Titanic, complete with Leo Di proclaiming his universal monarchy.
That's my theory, but I've been wrong before.
Quote from keeptradin':
Thankfully I have never been on a sinking ship (except canoes and sailboats at summer camp), but this market action is how I imagine it would go down as the ship sinks.
The captain and crew (Big Money) who know what is about to take place calmly gather their belongings and plan their exit from the doomed vessel. Once they have made their way safely to the lifeboats with everything they can carry, the order is given to abandon ship. At that point all hell breaks loose, and the passengers (retail traders) are left to figure out how to survive.
All the fundamentals of the market indicate things are not going to get better any time soon. The actions of the Fed to prop up the economy are simply to give their masters (Big Money) time to get in the lifeboats and safely to shore. Once the Fed runs out of bullets and the fit hits the shan, the market will sink like the Titanic, complete with Leo Di proclaiming his universal monarchy.
That's my theory, but I've been wrong before.
Good stuff KT. Let's make sure we are not one of the passengers.
Tonight's action is once again the masters throwing bait in the water. Good for several handles on the long side but overall the trend is down.
One of the best trading books I ever read was Marty Schwartz's Pit Bull. My buddy sent me this piece from the book after I struggled the last 3 days. It is a good refresher to put me back in the mindset that allowed me to do so well in the first half of May. I am ready to roll this week....BRING IT F'IN ON MASTERS!
Pit Bull - p. 115
"I was a boxer-counterpuncher. Timing was my key. I'd spot an opening, hit it, and jump back. In and out, in and out, bob and weave, a point here, a point there. I didn't take wild swings, because I never wanted to do anything that would jeopardize my family's security. I outpointed the market by trying to win every round, and if I could help it, I never put myself into a position where I could be knocked out. It was a safe, unspectacular approach that didn't give me too many big victories. For two hundred days a year, I'd end up with reasonably small losses netted out with similar-sized gains. Lose $5,000 here, make $6,000 there, round after round, twenty, thirty, forty times a day. But I'd win the other fifty trading days by clear-cut unanimous decisions. Smack the bonds for $75,000, hit a stock for $100,000, nail a couple of options for $125,000, pound the S&Ps for $150,000. Over time it made me a big winner, to the tune of $5 million a year."
Pit Bull - p. 115
"I was a boxer-counterpuncher. Timing was my key. I'd spot an opening, hit it, and jump back. In and out, in and out, bob and weave, a point here, a point there. I didn't take wild swings, because I never wanted to do anything that would jeopardize my family's security. I outpointed the market by trying to win every round, and if I could help it, I never put myself into a position where I could be knocked out. It was a safe, unspectacular approach that didn't give me too many big victories. For two hundred days a year, I'd end up with reasonably small losses netted out with similar-sized gains. Lose $5,000 here, make $6,000 there, round after round, twenty, thirty, forty times a day. But I'd win the other fifty trading days by clear-cut unanimous decisions. Smack the bonds for $75,000, hit a stock for $100,000, nail a couple of options for $125,000, pound the S&Ps for $150,000. Over time it made me a big winner, to the tune of $5 million a year."
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