ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Use a larger time frame.... encapsulate all price in 2 trendlines: we in a downtrend channel!!! When we brake the downtrend TL then MAYBE the trend is changed!
In the FWIW department, barring an unlikely 50 pt. rally tomorrow, we are going to close the weekly ES bar well below its 20 week (5 Month) ma. Last week we closed right on top of the 20 ma -- almost a doji in fact.. These piercings of the 5 month ma by a weekly bar closing below after a long ride up have been pretty reliable harbingers of more downside to come.
The last time a weekly bar crossed the 20 ma and closed below it was Nov. 14, 2011.
The last time a weekly bar crossed the 20 ma and closed below it was Nov. 14, 2011.
ended up buying more near the cme close and covering the calls. puked a portion at 4.25 for a healthy 10 pts loss but mitigated some of that loss with the premium on selling calls all day long.
market does not feel right. considered buying puts but vol is up so it does not make sense just to hold this small position for a hopeful rebound. there will be other chances, i just have to keep telling myself that.
puked the rest. flat. i live to trade another day. i think the market makers got what they wanted but there will always be ops tomorrow and in the future to make it back. good night.
the big boys play fundamentals, with massive risk bets,sort of a global economic war,we(at least i do) play s/r moves,when they blow thru all s/r the small player has to step back,save his ammo and wait for a setup,the guy selling a system is a small timer,selling because he's realized it's flaws, like a used car,pass it on to the next guy
no insult intended but here is a perfect example,same as my many examples of s/r that doesn't take into acct the fundamental risk's involved by the few massive players that move the market,please don;t get angry rt,we are all just sheep, getting led to slaughter,and need to admit that no matter how tough you believe you are,it's just a belief to help us cope with the fact that we are always vulnerable to the big picture,understood by a handful of players,the many bounces at s/r are just handouts to keep us in the game,what's a carnival,if they come to town and rob everyone,they come back next year and have no customers, they have to portray the illusion of you have a chance,we have to realize the game is rigged, and they have much bigger oceans in mind than our small lake, no matter how profitable it is,i am willing to forgo what ever supp my ego thinks is the smart one and save capital on the i don't know bets , and wait for the cheaper meal down the road
well said and spot on
Actually, they don't. There are fewer small-spec traders in the ES today than at any time in the past ten years or longer.
That's why we see price action move from buzzing chop to program spike to buzzing chop to program surge. Also why we now commonly see longs filled at the bid and sells at the ask, along with 1-tick slippage becoming frequent.
The ES is way less liquid and thin across nearby strikes than ever before. Mostly because individual small-spec traders have dwindled greatly. In the past, trading for most guys was nothing more than expensive entertainment. The new economy has forced them out of their at-home gambling "game"
Anyone who still makes trade decisions that start with, "I think the market will..." or "This market feels like..." or "I think the buyers(sellers) here must..." or pretty much anything that begins with "I think" are always doomed.
Anyone who makes trading decisions that begin with "price action suggests long at / shorts at" are the only ones with any chance to prevail. This is a new world order with big algos cannibalizing one another each day and that's the market.
The days of "bulls need this" or "bears need that" are over with. It is all nothing more than S/R levels where algos kick in from sideways lulls to directional surges. Learn to read price action according to the algo's game, or perish. They don't need us in the mix at all... individual traders are insignificant to the game.
Proof of all that is evident in the literal sea of dead aliases from this thread since year 2006 inception who once posted frenetically here all day long, but now are gone.
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