ES Journal - 2012

sttrader · May 4, 2012

Quote from sttrader:

See if we can approach 1370 area. So far slow controlled selling like a soft landing.

Soft landing. Could get a bounce here but overall feeling is bearish.

keeptradin' · May 4, 2012

Quote from thesniper:

quick question:
If I'm short 1 ES and long 1 YM what is my overnight margin requirement for both positions?

http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/margins/#e=CME&a=EQUITY+INDEX&p=ES

sttrader · May 4, 2012

Quote from sttrader:

Soft landing. Could get a bounce here but overall feeling is bearish.

Long at 70, stop at 63.5

thesniper · May 4, 2012

Quote from mastacoli71:

i think it depends on your broker

Brokers set intraday margins, not overnight (i think). I ask because I am short ES and want to hold for a while but I also want to hedge with YM on any potential rallies.
I know that the overnight margin on ES and YM is 5k each. However if long one and short the other, do the margin requirements offset each other.

keeptradin' · May 4, 2012

Quote from keeptradin':

http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/margins/#e=CBT&a=EQUITY+INDEX&p=YM

keeptradin' · May 4, 2012

Quote from thesniper:

Brokers set intraday margins, not overnight (i think).

You are correct, sir. (Another Ed Mc Mahon impression)

ammo · May 4, 2012

Quote from thesniper:

Brokers set intraday margins, not overnight (i think). I ask because I am short ES and want to hold for a while but I also want to hedge with YM on any potential rallies.

they seem to run 85% or better 1 for 1 on the dollar amounts so its more of a safety deposit box for your loss or gain..the margin requirements differ from house to house, they do offset but your broker might not see it that way

thesniper · May 4, 2012

Quote from ammo:

they seem to run 85% or better 1 for 1 on the dollar amounts so its more of a safety deposit box for your loss or gain..the margin requirements differ from house to house, they do offset but your broker might not see it that way

Sorry bro, i didn't understand that:

I know that the overnight margin on ES and YM is 5k each. However if long one and short the other, do the margin requirements offset each other.

keeptradin' · May 4, 2012

Quote from thesniper:

Sorry bro, i didn't understand that:

I know that the overnight margin on ES and YM is 5k each. However if long one and short the other, do the margin requirements offset each other.

See my posts above with links.

The overnight margins are not 5k, and they do not offset. Separate margin for each position.

thesniper · May 4, 2012

Anyway my thoughts on ES:
Huge divergences in world markets. Europe and EM significantly below 2011 and 2012 highs. US markets alone broke 2011 highs due mostly to flight to quality/safety.
Europe in deep recession now. Europe biggest trade partner for China and US. So there will be some contagion. Austerity is killing Europe and will kill US in 2013. However the tide is slowly turning against austerity.

For ES, I'm thinking big sell off now. Take out the YTD lows and then rally in time for election of Obama. The establishment loves Obama and will rally stocks in time for his election. Selloff again after election due to austerity/tax/spending political fight. However right now its hard to rally after already being near multiyear highs.

My ES targets:
1325 scale out short
1300 scale out
1275 scale out
1250 go long