ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Quote from trickshot:
Interesting. So you ignore the ETH moves and only look at RTH prices on the ES?
I analyse/trade gaps too, but only for the SPX/SPY because they don't trade round the clock. I guess thats essentially the same thing as trading RTH ES gaps, except that I don't look at gaps on lower time frames for SPX/SPY, only on the daily.
I guess thats the arbitrary nature of technical analysis, there are a billion ways to look at the same chart, different time frames can sometimes yield totally different conclusions.
Yes, there are a billion ways to look at things, but what matters is that you choose one method that you can reproduce consistently.
I always weigh RTH (US equities session 09:30-04:00) more, since the ES is a derivative of the S&P cash index and stock market.
As for ETH, I typically plot the overnight high, low and 50% retracement on my RTH chart. These are also very important levels that often is tested during RTH.
Occassionally, some other level of note appears during ETH, but the high/low/50% is what I typically look at only.
Forget about minute bars.
Plot the market close price yesterday and market open price today in a spreadsheet.
There`s your gap.
Still confused?
Quote from Laissez Faire:
Forget about minute bars.
Plot the market close price yesterday and market open price today in a spreadsheet.
There`s your gap.
Still confused?
Yea... and there would be no gap because we opened at 92, traded to 1411 and closed at 1400. 5/1 RTH was a long white bar with upper shadows, the only way we would have got a gap was if we opened at 89 or something, that would have produced a small gap.
Now I`m confused.
Forget about long white bars and shadows. If you plot a 60-minute chart and a 1-minute chart, the close area would look vastly different. There are traders who does not even look at chart.
US equities RTH session, 09:30-04:00.
The cash close on the 1st of May was 1402,50.
Yesterday, on the 2nd of May, we opened gap down at 1394.
We now have an open gap above. Only after we have traded at 1402,50 during RTH would this gap be closed.
With me now?
Quote from Laissez Faire:
Now I`m confused.
Forget about long white bars and shadows. If you plot a 60-minute chart and a 1-minute chart, the close area would look vastly different. There are traders who does not even look at chart.
US equities RTH session, 09:30-04:00.
The cash close on the 1st of May was 1402,50.
Yesterday, on the 2nd of May, we opened gap down at 1394.
We now have an open gap above. Only after we have traded at 1402,50 during RTH would this gap be closed.
With me now?
Thats a weird way of defining a gap.
If you are only referring to the daily bar then yesterday was an inside bar, not a gap. Its true that we opened at 1394, lower than the close of 1st May, but don't forget that we opened at 92 on 1st May, so the body of the bar was from 92 to 1400. Technically, an opening within the body of the previous bar isn't a gap, in fact most people I know wouldnt consider an open within the shadows of the previous bar a gap too.
The only way you could have gotten a gap was by looking at the lower time frames (like the chart you posted), there isn't any way anyone would have considered yesterday's open a gap on the daily chart because we opened within the body of 1/5's bar.
I suppose we could post this question on the technical analysis board if you like, I'm sure most would agree with me that yesterday was an inside bar on the daily chart.
That is the way that makes sense to me.
We opened 8,5 points down in relation the previous close and that is per definition an open gap down. Of course, the magnitude of any given gap differs and how it appears on a daily chart is a different matter.
Feel free to post it if you feel like it.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
That is the way that makes sense to me.
We opened 8,5 points down in relation the previous close and that is per definition an open gap down. Of course, the magnitude of any given gap differs and how it appears on a daily chart is a different matter.
Feel free to post it if you feel like it.
The way it appears on the daily chart is all that matters... Look at the 5min chart you posted again and tell me would have considered the 2nd May open a gap if we had opened at 1402? I think not because that would have been an open within the range of the previous bar. Now apply the same logic to the daily chart... see what I mean?
I will post this on the TA board shortly, would like to know what others think of this.
Quote from keeptradin':
Hang in there, I'm sure there will be some crappy news overnight to push us down again...
Well, we had the push down to the 95.50 level, but WTF happened around 3am EST to make the market pop four points?? Something going on across the pond maybe??
We've got four reports this morning at 8:30am EST, with Unemployment Claims sure to be an action-maker, then the ISM PMI number at 10am, to put the icing on the cake. Based on the Job Cuts report released this morning, I am expecting the Unemployment number to be higher than the 389k forecast.
Based on the little overnite rally we've had, I wouldn't be surprised if this is a "pump 'n dump" by the Big Boyz ahead of the reports. They have run it up to what appears to be pretty good R level, setting up perfectly for a big move down on any bad news.
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