ES Journal - 2012

[FreakofNature]

Quote from Trvlwanderer:

Freak...for the sake of killing some time and sharing a little knowledge, what factors are in your system? Is it purely mechanical, or discretionary triggers?

Mostly mechanical yes, if i try discretionary I lose like a dog.

Only way i make money discretionary is long term averaging down an index using underleverage, very sad lol

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from ammo:

snack how do you read this

Ammo,

Bullish all the way for now. The hard line in the sand is -600 on the TICK. Divergence on the TICK (where TICK goes lower and price consolidates) only adds fuel to the bullish fire. There are instances where the market will sell off without the TICK closing below -600, but only if we have had a MASSIVE gap up, where the TICK opens at like +800 right out of the gate. I'm still eyeing 70's as a target for today so far, and I will tread this as a new range that we will probably just bang around in for a while.

 

[ammo]

Quote from bigsnack:

Ammo,

Bullish all the way for now. The hard line in the sand is -600 on the TICK. Divergence on the TICK (where TICK goes lower and price consolidates) only adds fuel to the bullish fire. There are instances where the market will sell off without the TICK closing below -600, but only if we have had a MASSIVE gap up, where the TICK opens at like +800 right out of the gate. I'm still eyeing 70's as a target for today so far, and I will tread this as a new range that we will probably just bang around in for a while.

thanks,i think you are using 600 as a barometer and we have stayed above that so no sign of weakness?

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from ammo:

thanks,i think you are using 600 as a barometer and we have stayed above that so no sign of weakness?

That's exactly right. The TICK can give -600 a kiss, but unless it closes below -600 (on a 1 min chart) I stay bullish.

Like anything there are exceptions and nuances, but that rule alone keeps me safer than any other rule I have.

 

[JoshDance]

ISDA will make a ruling today on CDS, no time given yet -- can make a ruling once CACs are formally activated by Greek gov't

 

[Trvlwanderer]

Quote from FreakofNature:

Mostly mechanical yes, if i try discretionary I lose like a dog.

Only way i make money discretionary is long term averaging down an index using underleverage, very sad lol

Thanks.

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from bigsnack:

That's exactly right. The TICK can give -600 a kiss, but unless it closes below -600 (on a 1 min chart) I stay bullish.

Like anything there are exceptions and nuances, but that rule alone keeps me safer than any other rule I have.

To show an example from the other side of the coin, here is the TICK and the price chart for that big selloff day that we had earlier in the week. Notice that the TICK only kisses above 600 once the whole day, and then finally again when price actually reversed just before the close. These signals also cross over to the following day, so a hint of strength into the close usually will mean a nice up move the following day, regardless if there is a gap or not.

 

[bigsnack]

Based off of what I'm seeing, if we do clear this level and move higher, the TICK will close above 600 and not pullback. For instance, we will either just clear or consolidate at the high, and at that time the TICK will close up above +600. Normally in the mornings, I will wait for a 50% pullback, but the shape of the chart looks more like a break and run situation.

 

[JoshDance]

I wonder how many people will want to hold a long position through the weekend, with Greece still fairly uncertain?

 

[dv4632]

Quote from bigsnack:

Divergence on the TICK (where TICK goes lower and price consolidates) only adds fuel to the bullish fire.

Are there some contexts where you use divergence on tick as a reversal signal? I know that's the most common logic when it comes to those situations, similar to the popular delta divergence.