ES Journal - 2012

[Macho]

Quote from bigsnack:

You know just as well as I do that it is not that simple. It's true that the market finds it's way to your fib numbers quite often. However, there are also days that they are never touched, or days where it makes a move towards one of your numbers, and then reverses and comes right back to the opening price. Like most discretionary plans, the money management makes or breaks this system. Either that, or there are nuances to it that you are leaving out, which is misleading if you come in here and say that trading is as easy as marking your lines and waiting for them to be hit.

Where does one get in? On the first pullback after a breakout of the opening 5 minute range? Where is your stop, and where do you add? That's the real edge IMO. If you are willing to share any of that insight, I'm all ears.

Don't hold your breath. He has been perfect since 33 A.D,because he will shares nothing.

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from Macho:

Don't hold your breath. He has been perfect since 33 A.D,because he will shares nothing.

Which is what I figured anyway. So in that case, I will have to keep wasting my time with my other project, since it involves the methods and the tools that I am familiar with.

 

[ammo]

he did mention that all the those methods are on the internet if one wants to look,i know everyone hates vendors,,haven't used him but if you look up his name on ET and search for bees,you will get to know him a little better, not a bad guy

 

[tortoise]

Quote from ammo:

he did mention that all the those methods are on the internet if one wants to look,i know everyone hates vendors,,haven't used him but if you look up his name on ET and search for bees,you will get to know him a little better, not a bad guy

I took his course many moons ago. He is a good guy. The swagger strikes me as a bit uncharacteristic, though. BigSnack should be applauded for his diligence and enthusiasm, not treated with snarky condescension.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from ammo:

es 28-30

I'm watching that level too. I think there is a very high chance that ES will trade down to that level within the next 2 days.

 

[tomahawk]

Quote from austinp:


Well either all that if you have lots of time to waste, or you could simply let the market's own daily roadmap tell you what it intends to do with one simple glance

Nice chart AP, as usual.

Here's another angle ... hope you don't mind.

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from austinp:

Well either all that if you have lots of time to waste, or you could simply let the market's own daily roadmap tell you what it intends to do with one simple glance

After you started posting these charts here I studied the 5min fib projection on my own data. Tons of days, hundreds to say the least.

There is nothing special here, if anything, your uncanny ability to cherry pick the days where it looks good. Many times it's as good as useless.

I wasted my time but hold no regrets at least I did my due diligence.

FoN

 

[Laissez Faire]

A road map is well and nice, but you need to know which direction to drive and when to turn left or right. If not, it`s useless.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from bigsnack:

I'm hoping to try and categorize days a bit better, so that I can further pinpoint what I should be expecting before getting in. I'm working towards upping my contract size soon, so I want to make sure I haven't left any stones unturned before doing so.

Sounds good, bigsnack.

I also think categorizing days and using the open to identify what type of day we may be seeing can be very useful.

I`m also further convinced that the combination of statistics and chart reading can be very dangerous.

Good luck on your studies.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Today I decided to take a look at how many gaps were filled on the same day for the last years. I used the same lookback period as yesterday, starting from 2008 to the 2nd of March last Friday, but for this I used daily SPY data.

Gap up
Number of days gap up: 554
Number of gap fills on the same day: 380
Percentage filled: 68,59 %

Flat
Number of days with flat open: 4

Gap down
Number of days gap down: 493
Number of gap fills on the same day: 354
Percentage filled: 71,81 %

Now, this is only a look at the surface and probably not useful for anything alone, but I`m still getting my feet wet with this stuff and playing around with it.

It does not say anything about the size of the gaps and one could argue that very small gaps should not be counted as a gap day, but as a flat open.

Probably not useful alone, but if one adds more parameters and conditions, it could perhaps yield some interesting results.

As an example, one could perhaps look at the distribution of the size of the gaps and see if it is possible to predict anything with regards to the size of the gap given certain conditions, i.e., are small gaps filled more frequently than large ones. Is there a bigger chance that we trade in the direction of the gap if it is a large one? Anything to gather from the previous day`s close in relation to the gap?

More coffee please.