ES Journal - 2012

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I took a small scalp long, and made profit. I could have and should have held it for 1 more tick which was my original target but moved it down 1 tick when I went back to the computer to look at the trade. My thought on this trade is that I don't want to over trade, so win or lose I decided to not trade anymore today.
 
market profile 101 for swing trading, when the nip doesnt hold it becomes in this case resistance,and we are heading for the next widest nip or deepest cleavage( stopping along the way at the ledges if there are any),in this case the cleavage ,at that point it stalls and either returns to test the nip above or drops to the one below
 

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Quote from tomahawk:

I'm trying to recall who here had the theory - might be Volente or Pekelo. You might want to reach out to one or both of them to get the official rules.

Anyway, good job and thanks for sharing your work.
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No problem.

I know that I heard it from Volente first. I believe he sent me some links on it as well, but I can`t seem to find them now. One was from Niederhoffer and the other from Quantifiable Edges if I remember correctly.

Both were studies on T-days, but the way Volente presented it did not necessarily claim that the day ended positive, but that if it was red at one point, there was high odds for a large positive move sometime during the day bringing it back towards the green or only a slightly red day/unchange. I also think that if there is a great bull run in the start of the day, but we revert back to the open, that is recognized as a T-day as well.

I`m sure he`s reading here, so I hope he`ll chime in. :)

Quote from bigsnack:

Awesome stats LF, thanks!

I'm actually in the middle of a project where I am tracking market open prices against opening TICK values to see if certain market behavior is more / less likely. This is right up my alley at the moment, thanks for sharing.
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Sure, no problem, brother.

Sounds interesting. What are you using for your studies?

I`ve done all my work in Excel for now and pretty much picked up how to do it from Steenbarger`s last book. If you did not already, I recommend you to check out his blog. He did a lot of historical studies on the market and was also a big fan of using the TICK as an intraday indicator. Not sure if it was his idea, but he created an indicator called the cumulative TICK which also may be worth looking into.
 
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