http://www.insidestocks.com/momentum.asp starting to pull below 70%
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ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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LF
4/04/00
05/10/10
4/04/00
05/10/10
Quote from chaykapwr:
Its 80% win rate because you just keep adding to losing positions and moving the stop up.
I would like to know what your average winner to average loser is
Yea I'm really averaging to a loser considering I posted the range where I would buy at before it even traded. Buying in a 1.5 range is a lot different concept than saying I will buy 60.5 then adding at 50.5 and 40.5
See you at 68 my friend
Quote from volente_00:
Yea I'm really averaging to a loser considering I posted the range where I would buy at before it even traded. Buying in a 1.5 range is a lot different concept than saying I will buy 60.5 then adding at 50.5 and 40.5
See you at 68 my friend
Not really different ...its all relative . I wouldn't call it adding to a loser if you stated your stop and didn't change it. If I said long 60 will add 50 and 40 stop 30 that's not adding to a loser.
When you keep adding and moving stop down , that's adding to a loser.
Whatever you call it doesn't matter. I just have a feeling your average winner to loser is less than 1
Quote from chaykapwr:
Not really different ...its all relative . I wouldn't call it adding to a loser if you stated your stop and didn't change it. If I said long 60 will add 50 and 40 stop 30 that's not adding to a loser.
When you keep adding and moving stop down , that's adding to a loser.
Whatever you call it doesn't matter. I just have a feeling your average winner to loser is less than 1
you do the math, last 11 trades netted 61 point with stop ranging from 3 to 4.25 points so 1.29 to 1.84 :1 ratio ?
If this trades fails then I guess it drops to 1.1 to 1.58 :1 ratio
Over the long term my average ranges from 70 to 90% win rate. Don't really track the r:r over long term because it expands and contracts with the volatility but it is never under 1:1 or I will not put the trade on. I shoot for 2 to 3 :1 minimum as a criteria for entering but will sometimes take 1:1 trades if there are other underlying indicators on my side. If I am in the zone it is nothing to string 10,15, as high as 20 winners in a row. During a drawdown I may put 3,4, 5 losers in a row but thankfully it rarely happens.
You don't have to like my style but it works for me so if you don't want to see it then feel free to put me on ignore.
Quote from volente_00:
you do the math, last 11 trades netted 61 point with stop ranging from 3 to 4.25 points so 1.29 to 1.84 :1 ratio ?
If this trades fails then I guess it drops to 1.1 to 1.58 :1 ratio
Over the long term my average ranges from 70 to 90% win rate. Don't really track the r:r over long term because it expands and contracts with the volatility but it is never under 1:1 or I will not put the trade on. I shot for 2 to 3 :1 minimum as a criteria for entering but will sometimes take 1:1 trades if there are other underlying indicators on my side. If I am in the zone it is nothing to string 10,15, as high as 20 winners in a row. During a drawdown I may put 3,4, 5 losers in a row but thankfully it rarely happens.
You don't have to like my style but it works for me so if you don't want to see it then feel free to put me on ignore.
Here is what ive noticed, look at your trade on Feb 10th, you started to add at 42, said stop was at 38, then you kept adding all the way down to 34. Say your average price was, 37, then yes your stop might have been 4 points.
But the problem i see, you obviously dont go full position in and out right away. I.e. your max size might be 10 contracts, so you might add 2 contracts, then add 2 more, then add 2 more.
This means when you get filled and it goes in your favor right away, you make a nice 8 points on 2 contracts.
but when you are wrong, you lose 4-5 points on 10 contracts.
I am not insulting/criticizing but rather just pointing it out. If you make it work, more power to you!
Quote from chaykapwr:
Here is what ive noticed, look at your trade on Feb 10th, you started to add at 42, said stop was at 38, then you kept adding all the way down to 34. Say your average price was, 37, then yes your stop might have been 4 points.
But the problem i see, you obviously dont go full position in and out right away. I.e. your max size might be 10 contracts, so you might add 2 contracts, then add 2 more, then add 2 more.
This means when you get filled and it goes in your favor right away, you make a nice 8 points on 2 contracts.
but when you are wrong, you lose 4-5 points on 10 contracts.
I am not insulting/criticizing but rather just pointing it out. If you make it work, more power to you!
where did I start at 42 ?
Said I hit 37 and would add to 32.
You are assuming I am not ending up over leveraged from adding to the position. I will say this has happened on a few occasions with the most memorable being t days where I was short.
I am human and there are often times where I don't know exactly where the turn will be but certain conditions lead me to believe it will be in a range. Maybe this range is 1.5 points, sometimes 4 or 5, sometime even 8 to 10. I will credit Ammo with turning me onto legging into this kind of trade using brackets back in early 2010. Before I used this method I would leave a resting bracket for an exact number and often the trade would not get filled because I tried to be to precise on a reversal spot. Now that I have incorporated this into my trading I end up being in more trades generating some type of profit versus before when the train would leave the station without me resulting in nothing. My other choice would be to enter earlier then where I thought using a bigger stop to compensate for poor entry and then the r:r gets skewed or missed out on the trade completely for trying to nail it perfect. I'm not saying it's for everybody but it works for me and that is what trading is really about in the end. Finding a methodology that meshes with your personality and risk appetite.
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