ES Journal - 2012

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Did anyone here ever do a study on the infamous t-day theory?

Remind me again, what does the theory state?

If I remember correctly, it does not state that there is a bias towards t-days being up days, but that there is a bias towards a significant upmove those days.

Such that if the market gaps down or is in the red, there is a bias towards a significant up move by the end of day ending in a green close or roughly unchange.

Anyone?

I`m playing around with some historical studies in Excel and this is one of the things I would like to test if I can wrap my head around it. Can`t promise anything. :)
 
Quote from JoshDance:

stop to 59.50
looking to add up a bit higher if it makes it
target for all is 68
More...

bought one more at 60.75

long 3, average now 60.00
stop is 59.50
 
Quote from JoshDance:

bought one more at 60.75

long 3, average now 60.00
stop is 59.50
More...

stopped 59.50 for -0.50 per unit ... looks as though it may have been the perfectly wrong exit.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Did anyone here ever do a study on the infamous t-day theory?

Remind me again, what does the theory state?

If I remember correctly, it does not state that there is a bias towards t-days being up days, but that there is a bias towards a significant upmove those days.

Such that if the market gaps down or is in the red, there is a bias towards a significant up move by the end of day ending in a green close or roughly unchange.

Anyone?

I`m playing around with some historical studies in Excel and this is one of the things I would like to test if I can wrap my head around it. Can`t promise anything. :)
More...

I believe it's something like "on T-days the market has a (80?)% chance of being green at some point". I don't know whether that's above that day's open or prior day's close, but I suspect the latter.
 
I swithced sides and have SIM shorted 59.00

looking to scale OUT a couple and targeting 55.00 for final

EDIT:

if it starts to move strongly will target 55.50 for 1/2, and then 53.50 for 1/2

If it strongly pushes back up, I'll bail and probably go do something else for a while.
 
Quote from tomahawk:

I believe it's something like "on T-days the market has a (80?)% chance of being green at some point". I don't know whether that's above that day's open or prior day's close, but I suspect the latter.
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I would also like to know the rationale or logic behind this phenomena . Anyone here?

Basically even if on testing this does show that there is a 80 or maybe even 90% chance of this happening, I want to have atleast some idea of the underlying reason that causes this behavior. Surely this is not random behavior, so there must be some reason behind it. Why should this happen only on Tuesday and Thursday and not on Monday, Wed and Friday ?
 
Quote from tomahawk:

I believe it's something like "on T-days the market has a (80?)% chance of being green at some point". I don't know whether that's above that day's open or prior day's close, but I suspect the latter.
More...

Thanks, tomahawk.

I guess the theory itself remains a little nebulous, but I will play around with it and see if I can find anything. That is, if I`m able to code it and run the numbers. Quite the newbie at the moment with this.

Did I recall you earlier saying that you collect statistics yourself in Excel? Do you use any VBA?

Thanks.

Quote from gmst:

Why should this happen only on Tuesday and Thursday and not on Monday, Wed and Friday ?
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I can only assume that it is because the t-day boys are buying. :)
 
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