ES Journal - 2012

[ammo]

this one is off of your wikipedia page,i didnt know it started in 57,i was only aware of it when they were trading the oex against it, maybe that started in 85 ish...the news still just reported the bonds and dow back then http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sptrends19502008.jpg to be fair to you Josh,i'm not dismissing your argument,it's just that i don't even know what log scale means

 

[chaykapwr]

Log scale basically is a way to transform data so it takes into account relative moves versus absolute moves. I.e. in log scale a move from 100 to 200 will take up the same vertical space as a move from 1000 to 2000 since both have the same percentage move . This is why the data doesn't look like a vertical wall up .

 

[ammo]

thnx chay..

 

[chaykapwr]

I would also recommend if.you want long term data to use the Dow Jones since it hoes back over 100 years

 

[ammo]

i see said the blind man

 

[tortoise]

Quote from ammo:

i see said the blind man

LOL. Ok, now THAT is one ominous-looking chart.

 

[ammo]

tortoise (or chay) you mentioned the log thing 6-9 months back,if that is a log chart why does it work so well,i am baffled..anyone

 

[ammo]

Quote from tortoise:

LOL. Ok, now THAT is one ominous-looking chart.

that mess began with greenspan ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan ),no wonder they cant solve the debt riddle, they took the mess in 87 transfered it around 25 years adding interest each time and there isnt enough money in the world to cover it

 

[tortoise]

Quote from ammo:

tortoise (or chay) you mentioned the log thing 6-9 months back,if that is a log chart why does it work so well,i am baffled..anyone

With log charts, you're looking at relative, as opposed to absolute, moves. Why wouldn't trendlines work on such charts?

Linear charts can misrepresent the significance of a given price action sequence. For example, on a linear chart, Apple's move from $10 to $20 takes up the same space on the "y" axis as its move from $500 to $510. On a log chart, however, the "y" axis would make clear the proportional difference between that 100% pole vault and a two percent hiccup.

So trendlines on log charts track the proportional movement of a stock. On faster (e.g., intraday) charts this might not make much of a difference (depending on the symbol charted -- e.g., ES move from 1200-to-1210 vs. 1300-to-1310). But on big picture daily/weekly/monthly/annual charts, such "proportional tracking" might offer a more revealing glimpse of what's really going on.

 

[JoshDance]

I didn't mean to imply that a logarithmic scale was bad or anything. A normal trend line on 80 year old data may work, but not these "over the river and through the woods" kind that ammo drew, IMHO.