ES Journal - 2012

[ammo]

same reduced

 

[tortoise]

Quote from ammo:

spx all time

The head and shoulders formation projects, I believe, to zero. So unless one chooses to see a Mayan calendar-style prediction, it's difficult to know just what to make of this.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from tortoise:

I understand how tedious and, possibly, demoralizing this kind of a market can be. But the move thus far, while extreme, is not without precedent. Bottom line: Odds favor imminent mean regression unless the 1370s are cleared. If that happens, fair enough, it's a new world. Until then, our job is to keep a clear head and read the price action.

They are trying very hard to induce new buying. Bennie stated that goal openly.

Some famous analysts came out saying you have a new bull run in place for NDX (e.g. Louise Yamada) this week.

If and when they can get people to jump back into equity, this fake rally can turn into a real one.

Just like the bottom created at 666. The first 300 point rally was done by Bennie. And he acknowledged that. The key to such bold move to work is that you find a way to get people jumping onto the boat afterwards. Once that is accomplished you get the higher low in place and force the market to push higher.

 

[ammo]

Quote from tortoise:

The head and shoulders formation projects, I believe, to zero. So unless one chooses to see a Mayan calendar-style prediction, it's difficult to know just what to make of this.

that's probably what its all worth if every one had to pay their interest induced debt,deficits, there is a lot of money on the sidelines,those holding it got it by being thrifty on one end and overcharging on the other,think apple labor and the iphone,when things get cheap in their minds,they will buy,and the jobs will come back,they are obviously waiting as they should be,this is partly the result of too much money in too few hands

 

[ammo]

Quote from gmst:

Haha - great work there Josh in debunking the myth. Yes your logic is correct. Btw, I will name the vendor - Larry is one of the classic scamsters - and he also manages to get time on TV - thats amazing. Guys running bloomberg and cnbc are not ignorant that they don't see the garbage that Larry throws around everyday. But they realize that masses - looking at stock market or novice trades trading ESs will be very pleased to hear someone directly from pits reporting. Capitalism at its worst.

Back in the day when I was in grad school, I had subscribed to his free daily newsletter and it was pure garbage - nothing of use there at all. His operation is just selling courses and fooling public. I think he charges 5k per person, 100 persons per year, means 500k income and 500 persons per year means 2.5 mm income. He has hired a guy for maybe 2 grands a month to just call people and take them through their software (which he recommends and gets a piece from its subscription also) and smooth talk people into subscribing with him.

I normally don't write bad things about anyone - but about mf Larry - I wasted at least 10 hours of my life looking at those useless emails he sends everyday morning. I really want to give it back to the guy. At least my basic intelligence and ability to smell BS helped me that I didn't paid him even one dollar of my money.

he pays them to go on there,but of course they dont mention it,cnbc is just one big ad

 

[tortoise]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

They are trying very hard to induce new buying. Bennie stated that goal openly.

Some famous analysts came out saying you have a new bull run in place for NDX (e.g. Louise Yamada) this week.

If and when they can get people to jump back into equity, this fake rally can turn into a real one.

Just like the bottom created at 666. The first 300 point rally was done by Bennie. And he acknowledged that. The key to such bold move to work is that you find a way to get people jumping onto the boat afterwards. Once that is accomplished you get the higher low in place and force the market to push higher.

You may very well be right; certainly, your credibility is high with me. And if this is, indeed, the plan, and if all does go to plan, there will be ample opportunity to get on the right side of this eruption and ride it heavenwards.

The tell will come soon, with the breach of the supposedly massive resistance just overhead.

Or not.

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from ammo:

spx all time

But S&P 500 was not computed until 1957 -- how is it you have data before that?

I appreciate the value of academic intrigue here; but do you really think a loosely drawn trendline on a logarithmic scale chart going back 80 years to data before the index was even computed has much of any validity?

Heck man, trendlines on 5 minute charts don't even line up when drawn perfectly and tend to be sketchy; do you really think an 80 year old trendline means anything? I love ya man, but c'mon.

I think it's the log scale that really bothers me the most. I get taking away some of the parabolic nature of the market during the booming years, but it seems to put more importance than necessary on the data that occurred 50 or so years ago and before.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from tortoise:

You may very well be right; certainly, your credibility is high with me. And if this is, indeed, the plan, and if all does go to plan, there will be ample opportunity to get on the right side of this eruption and ride it heavenwards.

The tell will come soon, with the breach of the supposedly massive resistance just overhead.

Or not.

I am short. Not speculative type leveraged short.

Just short enough to offset potential drop in price in other assets unluckily still priced in (or closely tracking) USD.

So do I believe it can go higher? It can happen and my daytrading does not object going along with it. I am just not comfortable holding long overnight. =)

Looking for about 100 pt drop from this area.

 

[ammo]

Quote from JoshDance:

But S&P 500 was not computed until 1957 -- how is it you have data before that?

I appreciate the value of academic intrigue here; but do you really think a loosely drawn trendline on a logarithmic scale chart going back 80 years to data before the index was even computed has much of any validity?

Heck man, trendlines on 5 minute charts don't even line up when drawn perfectly and tend to be sketchy; do you really think an 80 year old trendline means anything? I love ya man, but c'mon.

I think it's the log scale that really bothers me the most. I get taking away some of the parabolic nature of the market during the booming years, but it seems to put more importance than necessary on the data that occurred 50 or so years ago and before.

,spx started sometime around 1985,you can use just that if you like still held nice res and supp

 

[ammo]

that hns