ES Journal - 2012

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I don`t understand the confusion behind the meaning of R10?

It is simply a 10 point measured move from a swing high or low. It is not predictive in itself, it is merely a statistic or metric. An observation about the market. If you believe a significant swing high or low is made, you can project 10 points give or take from that price level.

It is similar to how statistics of the daily price changes can be beneficial for a trader. Plot the data of recent price history during RTH and know the average (even median) range, average true range, maximum/minimum range, mode, etc. Know what is normal and know what to expect.

Then do the same with the AH only range.

Then, if you can read price and believe the bottom or high is in for the day (maybe there is a statistical edge here regarding the hour of the day this is typically made), you can use your statistics and make a projection for where you think the high/low may be for the day. If it lines up with some other level like a pivot level, higher time frame S/R, pattern projection, etc, then all the better.

Then there`s R20s and R100s as well. At least that`s what I heard. :)
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

I don`t understand the confusion behind the meaning of R10?

It is simply a 10 point measured move from a swing high or low. It is not predictive in itself, it is merely a statistic or metric. An observation about the market. If you believe a significant swing high or low is made, you can project 10 points give or take from that price level.

It is similar to how statistics of the daily price changes can be beneficial for a trader. Plot the data of recent price history during RTH and know the average (even median) range, average true range, maximum/minimum range, mode, etc. Know what is normal and know what to expect.

Then do the same with the AH only range.

Then, if you can read price and believe the bottom or high is in for the day (maybe there is a statistical edge here regarding the hour of the day this is typically made), you can use your statistics and make a projection for where you think the high/low may be for the day. If it lines up with some other level like a pivot level, higher time frame S/R, pattern projection, etc, then all the better.

Then there`s R20s and R100s as well. At least that`s what I heard. :)

LF - that was very clear explanation. Thank you.
 
An old chart I found on my laptop.

In this case it was a R10 measured move from the prior day`s close or from the daily high to low at the gap fill, depending on how you look at it. :)

Now, I can`t say anything about the distributions of R10 swings (measure and see for yourself) recently and if they still hold true, but at least that`s the basic idea. Maybe it`s R8 now. :)
 

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