ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from Trvlwanderer:

targeting 43 range, then 46.50, then maybe a runner to upwards of 50. We'll see how long I can hang onto this swing.

final out at 1351. Not gonna be greedy. Good trade and met targets.

This is trading out of my comfort time zone as is. Good trade, but glad to be rid of the contracts. SPY, SSO, yes, ES overnights.....not good for my nerves. :cool:
 
Quote from fseitun:

Can anyone tell me what S/R level is at 1344, which was the last minor pullback before this last leg up? Thanks in advance.

I had a fib that vicinity from the past two days all hours swing high and low.
 
Quote from ammo:

is that because of the fake bids/offers entered /pulled by the hft's

No--anything related to volume has nothing to do with orders; volume is a done deal, no hiding possible (at least volume reported by the exchange, this ignores any dark pools and all that stuff).

One reason for the variation can be described in this scenario: a transaction occurs at 51.75, and then a market sell order takes the last traded price to 51.50. Then at high frequency the bid and offer "rotate" around 51.50, so that the market goes 51.25/51.50, to 51.50/51.75 in millisecond timing, and sellers only sell when the inside bid is 51.50, and buyers only buy when the inside offer is 51.50. Below is a picture of this happening a moment ago, and it happens all the time, all day. It happens so quickly that you never even see the bid/offer switch on the DOM, but that's what's happening in super sub-second time.

So, the first time it ticks DOWN to 51.50 this time it's counted as sell volume (negative delta). When the above scenario happens, all subsequent transactions at 51.50 are counted as sell volume, since the market has not ticked UP, EVEN IF there are buy orders executed. If the market had ticked UP to 51.50 from 51.25, then all subsequent transactions are counted as buy volume (positive delta).

In a bid/ask delta calculation, a buy market is counted as positive delta, and a sell market is counted as negative delta; the market price and which way it ticked is irrelevant.

There may be other reasons for the differences but this is one.

http://screencast.com/t/X6tsqgnY2U
 
Quote from Trvlwanderer:

final out at 1351. Not gonna be greedy. Good trade and met targets.

This is trading out of my comfort time zone as is. Good trade, but glad to be rid of the contracts. SPY, SSO, yes, ES overnights.....not good for my nerves. :cool:

nice job trvl -- I expected that 35 area to hold overnight and was hoping for your sake that it would :)

What happened earlier is a great example of how I was shaken out of a trade by 1 tick at my original entry price, then tried to get clever and shorted, thereby negating my profit on the prior trade, and instead of staying long for the ultimate target on my trade of 51, I actually probably was negative on the whole thing.

Whereas you left it alone, and stuck to your idea, and it worked beautifully. It's great to see good traders execute, hopefully one day I will be this disciplined.
 
pretty obvious sell and short target at yesterdays high as well as previous res and value areas (53-54.50). This could propel onward to 58 if they set it up right.

Playing scalpasaurus tex with a cautious eye towards heavy buying in es and euro. Jurasic Park for the next hour I believe (watching for small meat eaters).
 
Quote from JoshDance:

No--anything related to volume has nothing to do with orders; volume is a done deal, no hiding possible (at least volume reported by the exchange, this ignores any dark pools and all that stuff).

One reason for the variation can be described in this scenario: a transaction occurs at 51.75, and then a market sell order takes the last traded price to 51.50. Then at high frequency the bid and offer "rotate" around 51.50, so that the market goes 51.25/51.50, to 51.50/51.75 in millisecond timing, and sellers only sell when the inside bid is 51.50, and buyers only buy when the inside offer is 51.50. Below is a picture of this happening a moment ago, and it happens all the time, all day. It happens so quickly that you never even see the bid/offer switch on the DOM, but that's what's happening in super sub-second time.

So, the first time it ticks DOWN to 51.50 this time it's counted as sell volume (negative delta). When the above scenario happens, all subsequent transactions at 51.50 are counted as sell volume, since the market has not ticked UP, EVEN IF there are buy orders executed. If the market had ticked UP to 51.50 from 51.25, then all subsequent transactions are counted as buy volume (positive delta).

In a bid/ask delta calculation, a buy market is counted as positive delta, and a sell market is counted as negative delta; the market price and which way it ticked is irrelevant.

There may be other reasons for the differences but this is one.

http://screencast.com/t/X6tsqgnY2U

Thanks Josh, that was educative.

I assume green color is buy volume (buy delta) and red color is sell volume, in your attachment. Correct ?
 
Much like the day after a double beef and bean burrito with extra salsa verdes chased with a pint of mezcal, my gut feels like it is on the verge of some 'splosive move. :eek:
 
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