ES Journal - 2012

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An example of an analysis, and then failure to follow the rule implied in that analysis:

Quote from JoshDance:

and a subsequent move below 43 would indicate a strong possibility to me of new lows.

44 held, as did 44.25 afterward, so no reason to short this until 43.00 broken. Lesson learned, I hope. (EDIT: a short at 46 or so has merit and is reasonable, I think, but the location I entered at made the trade a disaster from the start).

It's almost always the case that a relatively impulsive entry yields a bad price, when it's against the generally established momentum anyway, resulting in either a small stop and small risk, yet incredibly high risk of a stopout, or a large stop and large risk, and still a decent chance of being stopped out. That's what happens when I sell at support, anticipating something that may or may not come.
 
Quote from Trvlwanderer:

caution around areas that are 10 points from a swing high or low. If you are long approaching an r10, look at taking a couple off.

Use caution entering a position near an R10...you may take some unneeded heat early in the trade.

At least that is my take on it.
9-11 points so 47-49
 
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