ES Journal - 2012

[ammo]

what is your delta saying josh

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from ammo:

what is your delta saying josh

http://screencast.com/t/EcIUgyMUdxq (blue line is zero line, and this is ETH)

 

[fishing]

Quote from bigsnack:

Damn, are we going to go STRAIGHT to 47???? No chance to even get back in...

nice call.. quite a lot of selling at the top but only enough to move it down 2pts..

 

[trickshot]

Most likely a slow grind up to 1370.

 

[chaykapwr]

Quote from chaykapwr:

Final target hit. However, I might hold this..

Will be shorting 1343 in a separate account however

this short was not taken, it was invalidated after we fell to 31

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from JoshDance:

Looking at a composite profile from friday to right now, we have a POC of 39.25, with 2.5X more volume below it (down to 32s) than above it (up to 42s). VWAP in that range is around 37.75. So IMO it would not necessarily invalidate a long opportunity unless we start to trade below today's open at 37.25 .... would like to see 41 hold as it is clearly the low of today's upper balance since trading there, however, only if we start to break into the mid 30s around 35 would I see the sentiment as having changed. Of course I'm not considering immediate order flow which could change at any time, but that's how the chart looks to me.

http://screencast.com/t/bSWRBBAsU

Josh, and any other profile guys, would it be safe to assume that the market will try to fulfill the typical "bell curve" shape in a situation like this? So in this case, the bottom of the bell is satisfied, but we haven't done enough trading between here and 40's. Maybe the bell will need to "fill in" before we trade higher?

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from bigsnack:

Josh, and any other profile guys, would it be safe to assume that the market will try to fulfill the typical "bell curve" shape in a situation like this? So in this case, the bottom of the bell is satisfied, but we haven't done enough trading between here and 40's. Maybe the bell will need to "fill in" before we trade higher?

I have no idea. I don't really subscribe to that typical way of thinking about MP. Ammo knows more about that stuff.

 

[ammo]

its a double nip on the regualr trading hours profile,they can fill the cleavage ,trade back down in this case to the lower nip or extend,rarely trade back down and make a lower tale,the last is my guess with the big ledge on the 1 yr profile posted earlier, the uvol dvol is crossing pattern so it is saying that we are going nowhere..josh thnx for the delta but i dont know how to read it,does it say buying receded and restarted

 

[ammo]

uvol dvol

 

[EliteThink]

looking like it might roll over.

'also think # of posts here is correlated with ES volume.