ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from tortoise:

that's a lovely chart. thnx

No problem buddy -- a little while back there was discussion about the past versus the present. While the past is the past and not necessarily predictive of the future, knowing the relative volume on the day is a good number to know, IMO. It has kept me out of this market today, that's for sure. Knowing that we have been about 30% or so below the 20 day median since the opening has kept my expectations in check and not led me to try to make something happen by overtrading (bear in mind that the prior 20 days even have not been too exciting, and we are way below even that median).

Opening within yesterday's range, having small volume with a tight initial balance, and staying mostly inside that up until now also leads me to keep my expectations such that, barring any news events, this will probably be an inside day, or close to it. If not, I'll try to jump on, but I won't try to squeeze blood out of this turnip.
 
Quote from JoshDance:

No problem buddy -- a little while back there was discussion about the past versus the present. While the past is the past and not necessarily predictive of the future, knowing the relative volume on the day is a good number to know, IMO. It has kept me out of this market today, that's for sure. Knowing that we have been about 30% or so below the 20 day median since the opening has kept my expectations in check and not led me to try to make something happen by overtrading (bear in mind that the prior 20 days even have not been too exciting, and we are way below even that median).

Opening within yesterday's range, having small volume with a tight initial balance, and staying mostly inside that up until now also leads me to keep my expectations such that, barring any news events, this will probably be an inside day, or close to it. If not, I'll try to jump on, but I won't try to squeeze blood out of this turnip.

Words of wisdom there. You are developing as a trader, my friend.

A similar thing that I have noted - based on observation, not many stats behind it is that :- If first hour range is <7-8 points, then its better to play mean reversion intraday, whereas if first hour range > 8-9 points, its better to trade breakouts.
 
Quote from tortoise:

If this is the new normal, it's the end of daytrading

At least it's dangerous. I nearly hit the table twice with my head because I almost fell asleep.
 
Quote from tortoise:

long 38.50



out 39.00


[EDIT: reverse short at 39.00]


[EDIT: Which, I'm sure, will trigger the obligatory 10 pt rally into the close]


closed short at 39.00...

this is stupid and i'm getting a headache now
 
this has many signs of a top: shrinking volume, contracted atr, vix a third of 12 month high, shirking bad news, parabolic price action at the highs. Currently, overcoming all are the 2011 highs acting like a magnet to draw in the retest. So far today is a regular inside day after a large bar.
 
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