ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from ammo:

sounds to good to be twue
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Yea sounds crazy but thats whats been going on since 2009, the banks are not lending out their money to the people with no jobs, they know they won't get them back. The only safe and easy way to get returns on that free money is long dated treasuries, its just another form of stealth QE.
 
Quote from trickshot:

The banks? Bernanke is offering them free money "forever" and they are using that money to buy up long dated treasuries, its an almost risk free arbitrage/carry trade.
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You would think so, but thet have to pay for them. Then why did they not buy them the last couple of days when they were a lot cheaper.

I think this is going to be another 'swap' from securities to treasuries and the trap door could fly open on the indices any time now.

Had I not screwed up earlier I would be back in to sell around 131200, but I told myself to leave it alone for the day.:mad:

I'm off . ammo this is like a few weeks ago.
 
Quote from Macho:

You would think so, but thet have to pay for them. Then why did they not buy them the last couple of days when they were a lot cheaper.

I think this is going to be another 'swap' from securities to treasuries and the trap door could fly open on the indices any time now.
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Macho, can you elaborate on the premise here?
 
Based on what I'm seeing here, at least so far it does not seem that long term market participants are willing to take this higher. Maybe a late day rally will ensue, but this thing should have shot up like a rocket once 7s held twice, both times on substantial bids, and then broke 11s. Why do they hold 07s so fiercely, yet they won't pay up a few more points to take it up? I'm not sure, but the volume just isn't there yet to see the likes of 19s and 29s. They simply do not seem confident in the market enough to pay into it. That's the only explanation I can venture a guess at. Or maybe it's just the time of day.
 
Quote from JoshDance:

Based on what I'm seeing here, at least so far it does not seem that long term market participants are willing to take this higher. Maybe a late day rally will ensue, but this thing should have shot up like a rocket once 7s held twice, both times on substantial bids, and then broke 11s. Why do they hold 07s so fiercely, yet they won't pay up a few more points to take it up? I'm not sure, but the volume just isn't there yet to see the likes of 19s and 29s. They simply do not seem confident in the market enough to pay into it. That's the only explanation I can venture a guess at. Or maybe it's just the time of day.
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The only theory I have on this is that there weren't enough suckers selling to profit on taking it up and stopping them out. If they run it up with nobody short, they are just paying a premium for no reason. Just a guess though.
 
Quote from bigsnack:

The only theory I have on this is that there weren't enough suckers selling to profit on taking it up and stopping them out. If they run it up with nobody short, they are just paying a premium for no reason. Just a guess though.
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Interesting idea; but what about all the shorts from yesterday and overnight? Seems there's more shorts now than we've had in a while possibly.
 
Quote from Macho:

You would think so, but thet have to pay for them. Then why did they not buy them the last couple of days when they were a lot cheaper.

I think this is going to be another 'swap' from securities to treasuries and the trap door could fly open on the indices any time now.

Had I not screwed up earlier I would be back in to sell around 131200, but I told myself to leave it alone for the day.:mad:

I'm off . ammo this is like a few weeks ago.
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Because they are expecting them to go even higher...

Bonds have pretty much rallied with stocks for the past 3 years, there is no reason why this wouldn't continue to be the case.
 
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