ES Journal - 2012

[lucky lucille]

Quote from gmst:

Hard day, I see. Tomorrow will be a new day. So time for Mojitos

I am curious, what did you find so hard about today?

10+ handles down from the open,, almost strait down?

 

[gmst]

Quote from ammo:

40k is max loss ,worst case titanic,if we got above 04 in spx,we may have gone to 10 ,then 14-18,i would have been out,but the bet was we would meet res at the tl in es and cleavage in spx,same reasons over and over,doesn't always work but most of the time it does

Ammo, how will you trade, once we cross the all time high of S&Ps, in the sense that there won't be any previous market profile to watch at that point. Curious about your thoughts. Can you give some example from history, when you faced such a situation.

 

[ammo]

Quote from lucky lucille:

a real and rare compliment (i think) from a very successful senior trader THANK YOU

was a lot easier back then spu's traded in nickels,daily range was 3-4 pts,3 million was an avg nyse volume day ,3/1 4/1 uvol would never hold,you could fade it,scalpers can get killed now with sudden 5 point moves and the hft's jitterbug it to catch all the tight stops,1-2 point moves... i was cocky too

 

[ammo]

Quote from gmst:

Ammo, how will you trade, once we cross the all time high of S&Ps, in the sense that there won't be any previous market profile to watch at that point. Curious about your thoughts. Can you give some example from history, when you faced such a situation.

that wont be for awhile,fed's game for the last 25 yrs is over,may have to pay for it for the next 25 yrs,the all time channel ,that upper line today is 1366 and its a big hns, so i think those previous market profiles will be useful for a longtime, that dot com and real estate bubble, in history, may turn out to be anomalies

 

[gmst]

Quote from lucky lucille:

I am curious, what did you find so hard about today?

10+ handles down from the open,, almost strait down?

I didn't expect a straight down - myself took no trades today in ES.

 

[gmst]

Quote from ammo:

that wont be for awhile,fed's game for the last 25 yrs is over,may have to pay for it for the next 25 yrs,the all time channel ,that upper line today is 1366 and its a big hns, so i think those previous market profiles will be useful for a longtime, that dot com and real estate bubble, in history, may turn out to be anomalies

Your argument is sound, but I will be careful with this line of thought, given fed's printing. If dollar fells 30% over next 3 yrs and Fed keeps doing QE, S&P might very well be at 2000. Depends on govt intervention. China hard-landing, Europe exploding etc. yes agree we go back to 1000.

 

[ammo]

if Ben was a contractor building your house ,and the central banks were his crew,the concrete is soft, they left out half the support beams,didnt sweat half the copper joints,gas lines and roof are leaking,you wouldnt ever be able to live in it and it would cave in under the first heavy storm

 

[Rickshaw Man]

As usual ES will rise tonight.

 

[lucky lucille]

Quote from ammo:

was a lot easier back then spu's traded in nickels,daily range was 3-4 pts,3 million was an avg nyse volume day ,3/1 4/1 uvol would never hold,you could fade it,scalpers can get killed now with sudden 5 point moves and the hft's jitterbug it to catch all the tight stops,1-2 point moves... i was cocky too

ammo, i'm not cocky just scared i guess

i trade MY sentiment, few TL's and pivots;almost no conventional indicators ..or sentiment..TICK..wtf is that??

you guys are talking exotic options and so on..so forth

feel like on on my own..i guess i am

never had a mentor or anyone that showed me the ropes

just trade off seat of my pants..hope thats enough

 

[lucky lucille]

Quote from gmst:

I didn't expect a straight down - myself took no trades today in ES.

gmst, not trying to be overly critical, i too took too little. at end of day i sit back and more often than not i am not happy with my performance on the day. too often i say to myself, how could 'you" (me) have missed the overall obvious trend on the day?

I; for one;look to my performance with a serious critical eye. you screwed up

i'm my biggest critic