ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from JoshDance:

As for my current long, 76.75, and add a long at 75.50, what do you think? If you're thinking "boy, that's a stupid trade" please tell me why you think so, I would love feedback.
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My opinion is that if you`re asking anonymous people`s opinion on your trades, you should at least not be trading with live money.

And if you`re averaging a loser, I believe I wrote about that earlier. :)

I recommend reading and studying "Reminiscences of a stock operator." Mandatory reading for any serious trader.

Sincerely.

Laissez Faire.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

index futures and the underlying components affect each other dynamically.

if the underlying components are not moving higher, ES cannot do it itself, given the players are normal (i.e. have a normal money making objective)

sometimes ES can pull the components up if someone willing to buy and not caring if the position will make money or not (i.e. PPT) then by stretching ES far away from the cash index enough, you trigger the arbs to pull them back together.

so real-time breadth is very useful to completely replace the ES volume. using tick indices, the component volumes, etc. give you a different dimension of information
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very helpful. thanks
 
Josh,

and here's something no one else has said before...


there's nothing wrong with quitting.


there are countless other ways to earn a living and don't feel that you HAVE to trade...let's face it 80%-90% will never make it long-term...even those that are doing well now also risk blowing up in the future.
 
Quote from tortoise:

in other words, correlating es/spy traded volume with buy/sell activity in underlying component stocks? yes, this is what i do.

what i didn't understand was how an apparent increase in buy pressure could actually reflect net distribution. in other words, how it could be that when there are more buyers than sellers, the "dominant intent," if you will, could be to sell.
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Onto 2nd question - I answered these often at my site =)

Think of a single stock. Many players all rushing in to buy, pay up.

But the damn thing went up only 20 cents.

What happened? Someone else keep selling to these aggressive buyers at the offer.

The buyers assumed the risk from those who sold their positions to them.

The problem is that you now have a concentrated area with many bag holders. They all share similar risk tolerence. The moment the price slided a bit lower, where a few of these players start selling, all the rest will dump.

Institutions have traders to trade for them to unload stocks in stealth. The art of dumping millions of shares without triggering alarm from smart counterparties. There are now also bots doing that.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

My opinion is that if you`re asking anonymous people`s opinion on your trades, you should at least not be trading with live money.

And if you`re averaging a loser, I believe I wrote about that earlier. :)

I recommend reading and studying "Reminiscences of a stock operator." Mandatory reading for any serious trader.

Sincerely.

Laissez Faire.
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"Reminiscences" is a great read, but here's what "anonymous people's opinion" has going for it:

You've no choice but to judge the opinion on its merits rather than its source.
 
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